Mets Predicted to Trade $20 Million 3-Time All Star to AL West at Midseason

Getty New York Mets slugger Pete Alonso is projected to become a free agent at the end of the 2024 season.

The New York Mets seem prepared to wait out at least one more year of payroll commitments to Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander before refocusing on the five-year World Series timeline owner Steve Cohen committed to in 2020.

But looking ahead to 2025, they will also have to decide whether to recommit to homegrown slugger Pete Alonso with a new deal, let him walk in free agency or trade him before the 2024 deadline and recoup some value. Writing up “bold Predictions for NL teams” for ESPN.com’s fantasy baseball section, Erc Karaball predicted the Mets would go with the latter, trading Alonso to a competitor in the AL West.

“Wait, what about 1B Pete Alonso?” Karaball asked. “He gets traded to the (Seattle) Mariners in July.”

In Karaball’s hypothetical, 24-year-old designated hitter and third baseman Mark Vientos shifts to first base and “becomes the new Alonso.” And catcher Francisco Alvarez fills some of the void on offense by hitting a “team-leading 31 homers.”

Alonso, a three-time All Star, signed a $20.5 million contract with the Mets at the start of the year to avoid arbitration.

Why the New York Mets Might Trade Pete Alonso

There is reason to believe Alonso will be on his way out of New York by the end of next season. David Stearns, the Mets’ president of baseball operations, may seek something in return before seeing Alonso join another team in free agency, as he is the type of player Stearns is historically disinclined to extend.

“In his eight seasons as (Milwaukee) Brewers GM, Milwaukee used seven different Opening Day first basemen, including Ryan Braun (2018) and Keston Hiura (2021), both of whom converted to the position,” Paul Hembekides wrote in his own ESPN prediction of an Alonso trade. “In other words, Stearns has never prioritized first base. Unless owner Steve Cohen intervenes, Stearns will be more inclined to trade Alonso than extend him, capitalizing on a market devoid of bats like his.”

It also seems plausible that Vientos would step into a first-base role if Alonso departs.Since being called up in May 2023, Vientos has seen 40 starts at designated hitter, 20 at third base and seven at first base. In 64 total innings at first, he has a stellar .982 fielding percentage. In 254 big-league at bats in the last two seasons, Vientos has slashed .205/.255/.354. 

He’s currently projected as Alonso’s primary backup at first.

Meanwhile, Karaball’s projection for Alvarez is certainly within reach, with FanGraph’s ZiPS model predicting he will hit 26 dingers next season. But even if he exceeds expectations, his production will be a far cry from Alonso’s.

As one of the most prolific power hitters in MLB, Alonso broke the rookie long-ball record with 53 in 2019. Last season, he hit 46.

The New York Mets and Pete Alonso Seem Unlikely to Agree on an Extension

In any case, it seems unlikely that the Mets and Alonso will agree on an extension before the July 30, 2024 trade deadline.

“By betting on himself and reaching free agency in a year, Alonso can gauge his true market value through league-wide negotiation,” Anthony DiComo pointed out for MLB.com. “The Mets, meanwhile, won’t gain much by signing Alonso now unless he’s willing to take a hometown discount.”