The New York Mets are expected to face a tough call in the 2024 season when it comes to homegrown first baseman Pete Alonso.
Alonso is set to hit free agency and projected to earn a deal in the range of $296 million over nine years, according to Spotrac. The team he’s played with for his entire five-year career will have to decide if they can extend him, should allow him to test free agency or try to recoup some value by trading him before the deadline.
Making his “bold predictions” for 2024, CBS Sports’ Mike Axisa wrote that the Mets will opt for the latter option.
“Trading Alonso at the deadline is the best way to maximize his value in his final year of team control, and we’re predicting it happens,” Axisa wrote.
The New York Mets Might See the Most Value in a Pete Alonso Trade
The decision will ultimately be made by Mets owner Steve Cohen along with newly-appointed president of baseball operations David Stearns. In Axisa’s estimation, Stearns won’t see the value in extending Alonso with the kind of money it will take to keep him, nor will he be willing to watch Alonso sign with another team in free agency just for the compensatory draft pick received for making a qualifying offer.
“A Pete Alonso extension is very unlikely and new president of baseball operations David Stearns is not one to invest heavily in first base,” Axisa added. “I don’t think owner Steve Cohen waited so patiently to land Stearns only to overrule him on such a major issue in Year 1 either. Letting Alonso leave as a free agent and receiving only one dinky draft pick as compensation would be a mistake and Stearns knows that.”
What Can the New York Mets Get Back in a Pete Alonso Trade?
Of course, Alonso’s cleats will be hard to fill, even if a deadline trade does bring back some assets.
The 29-year-old has racked up 192 homers, 498 RBI and 288 walks in his big-league career, averaging a .528 SLG in that time. He has three All-Star nods, including last season, when he also earned some MVP votes.
For his part, he seems prepared to find the largest-possible deal among all MLB teams next offseason. He has signed five one-year deals with the Mets in a row, and could next be seeking a long-term contract as he enters his 30s.
“Alonso switched agents to hire Scott Boras, who’s best known for maximizing free-agent dollars,” Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported. “And let’s face it, even before he hired Boras, Alonso went year to year. He showed little interest in a long-term extension… There’s no reason to believe he won’t at least be a free agent, and there’s no reason to think there won’t be plenty out there for him.”
If the Mets do trade Alonso, it’s unlikely they will receive a significant haul in return. Teams are loath to give up a lot for what might turn out to be a half-season rental in a deadline deal for a player in his walk year.
“He’ll make more than $20 million in his last year of arbitration because of his big counting stats, so his trade value is middling: something like a prospect that ranks in the 101-200 area of a prospect list,” Kiley McDaniel projected for ESPN.
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Blockbuster Trade Prediction Has Mets Deal All-Star Projected for $290 Million