NBA Player Props: dfsPro Predicts Massive Rebounding Night for Giannis

Getty Giannis jogs back on defense against the Atlanta Hawks.

A massive 9-game NBA slate on Wednesday, April 3, will certainly occupy my evening, but let’s add to the fun with a few AI-suggested player prop bets featuring Giannis Antetokounmpo to record 14 or more rebounds and Donovan Mitchell to score under 22.5 points.

Antetokounmpo’s favorable rebounding matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies will be crucial if the shorthanded Milwaukee Bucks hope to continue holding off the Cleveland Cavaliers for the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference. 

Meanwhile, Mitchell hopes to get back on track after a few injuries have caused him to miss significant time since the All-Star break. Let’s dive straight into our dfsPro model’s preferred bets and the analysis behind them!

NBA Player Props for April 3

Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 13.5 Rebounds (+102) – Caesars

While the Bucks can’t get to first place in the Eastern Conference, they are only 1.5 games ahead of the Cleveland Cavaliers for second place, so they still need to win as many remaining games as possible.

There is good and bad news for the Bucks (and Giannis) in this spot against the Memphis Grizzlies. The bad news is that Milwaukee will continue to be without Damian Lillard (groin), Khris Middleton (ankle), and Patrick Beverley (ankle) for this matchup against Memphis.

The good news is that the Bucks are playing Memphis, one of the worst teams in the NBA, due to its horrendous injury luck. Unless the shorthanded Bucks can blow Memphis out in the first half of this game, Giannis Antetokounmpo should play his usual amount.

Giannis has recorded 14 or more rebounds in 5 consecutive games, averaging 17 rebounds in 38.7 minutes per game that stretch. The Grizzlies have also allowed opponents to log the second-most rebounds per game against them this season, mainly due to injuries and lineup inconsistencies. Our AI model projects Antetokounmpo to finish with 15.6 rebounds, 4 more than his average (+34.48%). 

Donovan Mitchell Under 22.5 Points (-110) – DraftKings

Since the 2024 NBA All-Star break, Mitchell has been unable to find his groove due to sustaining 2 different injuries, including a bruised left knee and a broken nose. 

In the 7 games he has been available, Mitchell has averaged merely 16.9 points per game on 37.1% shooting from the field. He has been under this betting line (22.5 points) in 6 of those 7 games. Mitchell’s volume has also been substantially lower than usual, averaging just 13.9 field goal attempts per game. 

Our dfsPro model projects Mitchell to score just 16.6 points, 10.2 points below (-38.06%) his season average of 26.8. Phoenix’s perimeter defense has held opposing shooting guards to the 10th-fewest points per game in the NBA, so don’t expect this to be the game that he breaks free of this sluggish streak.

One Last Thought

The Memphis Grizzlies have covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 games against Milwaukee. In fact, the Grizzlies even won at home earlier this season without having every starter, including Jaren Jackson Jr., Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart, and a handful of others.

However, despite being double-digit favorites to win, the Bucks are fresh off a loss to the Washington Wizards. This could be a bounce-back spot for Milwaukee as it desperately tries to hold off the Cleveland Cavaliers for second place in the Eastern Conference. 

Our AI-powered model suggests that the betting line for the Grizzlies vs. Bucks game should be closer to 13.5 in favor of Milwaukee. If you can find Milwaukee at -12, it could be worth a look.

Even though March Madness is winding down, I will still cover the NBA daily, so stay updated with the daily dfsPro bets and picks!