NBA Playoff Props: Who Will Win Game 3 Duel Between George & Doncic?

Getty Luka Doncic backs Norman Powell down in the post in Game 2 against the Clippers.

After securing a Game 2 win, Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks look to capitalize on the flipped home-court advantage against the Los Angeles Clippers.

Doncic has been one of the best playoff performers in NBA history, and that should continue with a massive scoring performance in Game 3. Meanwhile, Paul George could see a high volume offensively since Kawhi Leonard is still shaking off the rust.

Can our dfsPro model stay hot and nail two more NBA playoff props? Let’s analyze these players and this game below.

NBA Playoff Props for April 26

Luka Doncic Over 33.5 Points (-115) – DraftKings

Despite being just 25 years old, Doncic is already among the greatest NBA Playoff performers in the league’s history, averaging 32.5 points per game on 47% shooting from the field and 36.4% from behind the arc.

Additionally, Doncic led a sub-par Mavericks team to the 2022 Western Conference Finals after besting the top-seeded Phoenix Suns team in the conference semifinals. 

Now, Doncic and the Mavericks return home after splitting games with the Clippers in Los Angeles. The “Luka Magic” has already started in this series, as he has logged back-to-back games of 30 or more points, but his offense should ramp up even more on their home floor.

Luka’s volume is the most attractive aspect of this bet. He has taken 26 field goal attempts in the first two playoff games. The amount of 3-pointers that Doncic has been shooting recently is bordering on what we have come to expect from players like Steph Curry. He has taken 14.5 3-pointers per game in his past four outings!

Our model projects Doncic will finish with 36.3 points, 2.8 more than his betting line and 2.4 more (+7.08%) than his season average.

Paul George Over 20.5 Points (-115) – DraftKings

Even with Kawhi Leonard back in the lineup, George should still see plenty of offensive volume. Kawhi struggled in his first game back, hitting just seven of his 17 shot attempts; don’t expect him to force the issue on that end of the floor in Game 3 as he gets back into playing shape.

Our AI-powered model forecasts George to finish with 26.1 points, 3.5 more (+5.49%) than his season average of 22.6. The 18.6 projected field goal attempts are also 1.9 more (+11.38%) than his average, indicating a high usage rate.

George has hit the Over on this line (20.5) in both playoff games thus far and in five of his past six games overall, not including the eight-minute outing against Utah.

One Last Thought

Dallas squeaked out a narrow three-point win in Game 2, but it shot 42.4% from 3-point land compared to the Clippers’ 26.7%, which is uncharacteristic since they are the fourth-best 3-point shooting team in the NBA. The Mavericks have not had a solid three-point defense this season, allowing opponents to hit roughly 37% of their attempts.

The Clippers are not the kind of team that relies heavily on their home floor to boost their record, either. In fact, they had a better winning percentage on the road than at home this season.

Our model suggests that the spread might be a bit too wide at 4.5 points in favor of Dallas. Los Angeles should keep this game close, especially if it can get a better game from Leonard, who struggled in a 7-for-17 shooting night. I’ll take the points with the Clips tonight.