Getty Tyler Glasnow will start on opening day for the Dodgers
Strikeout prop bets rank among the most sought-after betting lines in baseball. These wagers involve predicting whether a starting pitcher will surpass or fall short of a specified number of strikeouts during a game.
Below are a few strikeout prop bets our AI-driven dfsPro model likes for the games scheduled for June 4.
MLB Strikeout Prop Bets
George Kirby Under 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+105, DraftKings)
In his last three encounters with the Oakland Athletics, George Kirby has consistently fallen below this mark, recording just 1, 2, and 3 strikeouts. Additionally, his strikeout percentage against current Athletics batters stands at a modest 19.3%, calculated from his 6 strikeouts in 31 at-bats plus walks.
This translates to an estimated 31 batters faced to meet the strikeouts line. While the Athletics present a favorable matchup, Kirby’s historical performance suggests he will likely fall short of this threshold tonight.
Looking at Kirby’s track record in away games, he has either pushed or fallen below the 6.0 strikeouts line in 77% of games since 2022, with an average of 4.5 strikeouts per game. This trend continues in the current season, with Kirby going under the line in 5 out of 6 away games, averaging 3.8 strikeouts per game.
Overall, he has met or fallen below this line in 8 out of 12 games this season. Considering these statistics, it’s reasonable to expect Kirby to have another performance below the 6.0 strikeouts mark tonight.
Luis Gil Over 7.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+140, DraftKings)
Luis Gil of the New York Yankees has been in impressive form lately, especially at home where he boasts an exceptional strikeout rate. Over his last three starts, he’s been on fire, averaging over 10 strikeouts per game with a remarkable strikeout-to-walk ratio. Facing his former team, the Minnesota Twins, who traded him away before he reached the majors, adds an interesting narrative to the matchup.
Gil has already shown his ability to rack up strikeouts against them in the past. Although recent opposing right-handed pitchers haven’t hit the 8-plus strikeout mark against the Twins, Gil’s current form suggests he could be the next to do so.
Notably, pitchers with similar strikeout rates facing the Twins this season have had considerable success, averaging 10 strikeouts per game. Considering Gil’s recent performances, he appears to have better strikeout potential than many of the pitchers who have already achieved this feat against Minnesota.
Lock of the Day
Tyler Glasnow Over 7.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-160, DraftKings)
Tyler Glasnow has been dominating lately, surpassing certain benchmarks in 6 out of his last 7 games. Over the course of the year, he’s exceeded expectations in 7 out of 12 games, particularly shining in away games with 4 out of 5 games exceeding expectations.
His stats are truly impressive, boasting a 33.2% strikeout rate and a 29.9% whiff rate. Notably, Glasnow performs even better on the road with a striking 38.3% strikeout rate compared to 29.8% at home.
The Pittsburgh Pirates enter this matchup with the second highest Called Strikes Plus Whiffs (CSW) percentage in the last 14 days. Against right-handed pitchers (RHP) in the last 30 days, they’ve struck out at a rate of 25.8%, the third highest in the league. In the last 14 days against RHP, they’ve maintained a 24.0% strikeout rate, ranking 13th highest.
Targeting teams with a high propensity for strikeouts is a strategy I favor, and Pittsburgh fits the bill here. Their expected lineup features every batter with a strikeout rate above 15% against RHP in the last 30 days, with 8 hitters exceeding 20%, and 4 hitters surpassing 25%.
Both O’Neil Cruz and Andrew McCutchen have strikeout rates above 25% against RHP this year, and with their lineup positions, they’re likely to have more plate appearances.
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