Player props provide an additional level of thrill to wagering on sports games. They offer valuable insights into a player’s ability to perform well in daily fantasy baseball or when placing bets on your preferred sportsbook.
Our AI-powered dfsPro model projects a number of individual performances worth keeping an eye on during today‘s games. Let’s dive into some of our favorite MLB player prop bets for July 1. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Player Prop Bets
Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105, DraftKings)
In his last five games, Francisco Lindor has gone over this mark 80% of the time. Lindor has been in excellent form recently, especially against left-handed pitchers, boasting a .300 batting average, .300 BABIP, .237 ISO, and a 54.2% extra-base hit rate. Additionally, he has drawn eight walks in his last nine plate appearances against lefties with a 95+ mph exit velocity.
Tonight, Lindor faces MacKenzie Gore of the Washington Nationals, who has struggled against right-handed batters this month, allowing a .299 batting average and .455 slugging percentage with 30.4% of hits going for extra bases. Historically, Gore has a low strikeout rate of 12.7% against the New York Mets over 71 plate appearances. With Lindor likely leading off for the Mets, who have been performing well recently, this sets up as a favorable situation for him.
Notably, Lindor has surpassed 1.5 bases in five of his last six games, averaging 2.7 bases per game during this stretch.
Charlie Blackmon Over 0.5 Runs Scored (+110, DraftKings)
Charlie Blackmon recently has been hitting well at home, going over in 16 of his last 20 games. Today, he faces Bryse Wilson, who has a 1.68 WHIP against left-handed hitters this season, and we all know how Coors Field boosts offensive numbers. Blackmon has also been hot against right-handed pitchers, going over in 5 of his last 6 games, and he’s been productive in his last 5 home games and 8 overall.
The key will be Blackmon’s ability to get on base, as the hitters following him, Ezequiel Tovar and Brenton Doyle, have strong adjusted batting averages. Additionally, Ryan McMahon, a left-handed hitter who Wilson struggles against, follows Blackmon in the lineup.
This bet targets a hitter in good form against a pitcher with significant weaknesses against left-handed batters, all in a hitter-friendly ballpark.
NRFI of the Day
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals Under 0.5 1st Inning Runs Scored (-130, DraftKings)
MacKenzie Gore is 14-2 in NRFIs this year and holds a 9-1 record at home. He’ll be up against the Mets, who have struggled to score in 71% of their first innings this season. Gore excels in key batted ball metrics, ranking in the top percentiles for Average Exit Velocity, Hard-Hit Percentage, and Barrel Percentage. Notably, the Mets’ top four batters have a combined .176 average against him. At home, Gore maintains a strong strikeout rate of 9.97 K/9 and ranks well in K% percentile.
On the other side, David Peterson will pitch for the Mets, having achieved a perfect 5-0 NRFI record and 2-0 on the road this season. He faces a Nationals team that has been shut out in 85% of their first innings. Peterson thrives away from home with a 2.84 ERA and a low .200 opponent batting average. His ground ball percentage ranks impressively in the 85th percentile, particularly effective in early innings. Against left-handed pitchers, the Nationals have struggled recently, ranking poorly in wRC+, OBP, and BB% metrics.
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MLB Best Player Prop Bets for July 1