Trade Proposal Sends Mariners $19 Million All-Star Slugger in 4-Player Swap

Getty The Mariners need an offensive upgrade at first base before the trade deadline. Could Vladimir Guerrero Jr. be the solution?

The Houston Astros have closed the gap considerably in the American League West. However, the Seattle Mariners are entering July 12 games in first place with a two-game lead. They own a 52-43 record and will search for offensive upgrades before the July 30 trade deadline. Could president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto find a way to land Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. via trade?

Bleacher Report’s Kerry Miller shared eight “realistic” trade proposals to help contenders improve their rosters. He cited first base as Seattle’s biggest weakness and put together the following trade to boost that spot on the diamond:

• Mariners receive: first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
• Blue Jays receive: outfielder Jonny Farmelo, shortstop Felnin Celesten and third baseman Ben Williamson

“It is pretty much Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or bust, plus Cody Bellinger as someone at least worth asking about,” he said while discussing the Mariners’ first-base targets.

“If Toronto is actually willing to part with Guerrero, Seattle had better swing big to get him, because the other contender that is desperate to improve its first base situation is the one two games behind the Mariners in the AL West.”

How Guerrero Could Instantly Improve the Mariners’ Offense

Vlad Jr. was just selected to his fourth straight All-Star Game. His offensive production has also returned to what it looked like a couple of years ago. The right-handed hitter is slashing .287/.361/.448 with 13 home runs, 19 doubles, 53 RBI and 45 runs scored in 402 plate appearances.

His .809 OPS and 129 OPS+ are in line with what he did in 2022 (.818 and 133) as opposed to his 2023 numbers (.788 and 116), per Baseball-Reference. His 2024 production looks far more impressive when breaking it done monthly, as well. Guerrero finished April with a .678 OPS. That jumped to .942 in May and June off the strength of a .337/.401/.542 triple slash.

The 25-year-old has been worth 1.6 WAR this season, according to FanGraphs. That’s much higher than the 0.1 WAR Seattle’s first basemen have produced in 2024, which ranks 20th in baseball heading into July 12. Ty France has taken up most of the playing time at first base for the Mariners. He’s hitting .232/.322/.363 with eight homers, 31 RBI and 28 runs scored in 323 plate appearances.

Trading for Guerrero Would Be a Multi-Year Move for Seattle

“Aside from the Orioles, Seattle has the best farm system right now,” Miller said. “And though most of its top-tier prospects are still likely at least a year or two away from cracking into the big leagues, that’s kind of perfect for Toronto, which would be waving the white flag on both 2024 and 2025 if it unloads Guerrero (and Bo Bichette).”

This hypothetical trade has the Mariners giving up three of their top 15 prospects to land Guerrero. According to MLB.com, Celesten (fifth) and Farmelo (sixth) are ranked within the top 10, while Williamson checks in at 14th.

Guerrero is making $19.9 million this season, but any team that acquires him at the deadline wouldn’t just be getting a half-season rental. While his long-term future is still undetermined, the four-time All-Star is under team control through 2025, per Spotrac.

The Mariners could get a first base upgrade for the next season and a half if they land Guerrero. However, part of this situation will hinge on whether Toronto wants to clean house and trade its homegrown slugger.