Getty Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Strikeout prop bets rank among the most sought-after betting lines in baseball. These wagers involve predicting whether a starting pitcher will surpass or fall short of a specified number of strikeouts during a game.
Below are a few strikeout prop bets our AI-driven dfsPro model likes for the games scheduled for July 14. All statistical research is from FanGraph.
MLB Strikeout Prop Bets
Max Scherzer Under 4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-135, DraftKings)
This is a great opportunity to fade Max Scherzer today. He’s up against the Houston Astros, who rank 27th in strikeout percentage against right-handed pitchers over the last 15 days and 28th for the season. At home, they’ve posted just a 16% strikeout rate against righties in the past 30 days. Out of the nine projected batters in the Astros lineup, six have a strikeout rate below 20% against righties this season, and eight of them are hitting above .250.
Only 3 of the last 11 right-handed starters facing Houston on the road have exceeded this strikeout total, and just two out of the last 11 pitchers overall in similar situations have done so. Scherzer has pitched in four games this season, surpassing this strikeout mark just once, and that was against the aggressive Los Angeles Angels. Tonight’s matchup against the Astros presents a greater challenge, as they typically avoid getting into two-strike counts.
Even with his outs line set high at 17.5, Scherzer can still fall below this strikeout number. In his last two starts, he went 19 and 20 outs but only recorded a total of 9 strikeouts, including just 3 in a 19-out outing against San Diego. With the All-Star Break approaching, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Texas Rangers exercise caution with Scherzer to prevent any risk of re-injury.
Logan Gilbert Over 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-110, DraftKings)
Logan Gilbert has exceeded this line in 13 out of 19 games this season, which is about 68%. This line is notably low for him, especially considering he’s facing a high-strikeout Angels team. The Angels rank 7th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season, and recently, George Kirby struck out 7 of them. Gilbert is coming off a strong performance with 7 strikeouts against the Padres, who have the lowest strikeout rate in MLB, so he’s in a good position to maintain this momentum.
Gilbert is an above-average strikeout pitcher, featuring a 29.5% whiff rate and a 24.1% strikeout rate. The expected Angels lineup presents several strikeout targets, with players like Taylor Ward and Jo Adell striking out at rates of 26.1% and 32.6%, respectively. This gives Gilbert plenty of opportunities to rack up strikeouts.
He has consistently dominated against low-strikeout teams this season, recording 7 strikeouts against San Diego, 8 against Toronto, 6 and 9 against Texas, 6 against Houston, 6 against Baltimore, and 7 against Kansas City. Now that he’s facing a high-strikeout lineup like the Angels, backing Gilbert to go over 5.5 strikeouts is a strong play.
Lock of the Day
German Marquez Under 3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-110, DraftKings)
I anticipate that Marquez will throw around 65 to 80 pitches in this outing. However, he’s facing a tough matchup against a gritty New York Mets lineup that has shown strong offensive capability. The Mets have put together a solid lineup this morning, and in his debut on a limited pitch count, it’s likely that the Rockies will ease him into the game. Given the circumstances, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him struggle to find his rhythm.
Moreover, Marquez’s strikeout rate has been at a career low, raising further concerns about his ability to record outs effectively in this environment. With his stuff expected to be a bit rusty following a long layoff, it seems like a risky proposition to rely on him to exceed the strikeout line in such a challenging matchup. For these reasons, I feel confident in backing the under on his strikeouts today.
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