Getty The New York Yankees might demote rookie sensation Luis Gil when Gerrit Cole is ready to return
Strikeout prop bets rank among the most sought-after betting lines in baseball. These wagers involve predicting whether a starting pitcher will surpass or fall short of a specified number of strikeouts during a game.
Below are a few strikeout prop bets our AI-driven dfsPro model likes for the games scheduled for July 29. All statistical research is from FanGraphs.
MLB Strikeout Prop Bets
Logan Gilbert Over 5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-130, DraftKings)
This line seems modest given Logan Gilbert’s performance this season. He has exceeded 5 strikeouts in 15 of 21 games, which is 71% of the time. Earlier this season, he struck out 8 batters against this same team.
Gilbert is up against a Boston Red Sox lineup that ranks 14th in strikeouts against right-handed pitchers this season. Although the Red Sox have been among the bottom 5 teams in strikeouts over the last 15 games, they have faced relatively weaker opponents. In a small sample of 25 at-bats, Gilbert has a 44% strikeout rate against the Red Sox.
Gilbert’s consistency extends to games against teams with both high and low strikeout rates. For instance, he has recorded 7 strikeouts against San Diego, 8 against Toronto, 6 and 9 against Texas, 6 against Houston, 6 against Baltimore, and 7 against Kansas City-all teams that are among the lowest in strikeouts versus right-handed pitchers.
With Gilbert’s impressive strikeout metrics—boasting a 29.8% whiff rate (82nd percentile) and a 25% strikeout rate (67th percentile)—he should have ample opportunities to add to his strikeout total. He has performed well against this lineup before, with only David Hamilton yet to face him, providing Gilbert an edge due to the unfamiliarity.
Jordan Montgomery Under 3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+100, DraftKings)
Jordan Montgomery is making his second start since returning from injury. In his first outing back, he threw 67 pitches and managed only 2 strikeouts. Now, Montgomery faces the Washington Nationals, a team that has proven to be challenging for left-handed pitchers in terms of strikeouts. Over the last month, Washington ranks 29th in strikeout percentage against lefties and 23rd for the season overall.
The Nationals are below league average in terms of Pitches Swung At%, but they have the 5th highest Ball in Play% and the 6th highest Contact%. Their projected lineup features 7 players with strikeout rates below 20% against left-handed pitchers this season.
Montgomery’s strikeout metrics are less than stellar this year; he ranks in the 5th percentile for K% and the 14th percentile for Fastball Velocity, with a K/9 rate of just 5.99. Additionally, he has struggled at home, holding a 7.82 ERA and a .355 opponents’ batting average.
Strikeout Prop Bet of the Day
Luis Gil Under 6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-150, DraftKings)
Luis Gil has fallen short of 6.5 strikeouts in 65% of his games this season, and this figure jumps to 78% on the road. Tonight, he faces the Philadelphia Phillies, who have shown some recent struggles against right-handed pitchers, but not to the extent that would justify a 7-strikeout performance.
Starting right-handers have gone under this number in 11 consecutive starts against the Phillies, and this trend extends to 14 straight road games. With Carlos Rodon having pitched a strong 6.1 innings last night, the bullpen is in relatively good shape after using only 2 relievers.
This aligns with Gil’s outs recorded prop, which is set at just 15.5. If Gil pitches fewer than 17 outs on the road this season, he has not exceeded 6 strikeouts in any of those games. Given that Gil would need to record multiple strikeouts per inning to reach 7 Ks in less than 6 innings of work, and considering the Phillies are currently performing well, it’s unlikely he will achieve that tonight.
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