Getty Houston Texans wide receiver Stefon Diggs
The 2024 NFL season is just a few months away, and season-long player props offer an exciting chance to profit by predicting a player’s performance over the course of the entire season. All statistical analysis is sourced from Pro Football Reference.
NFL Best Receiving Yards Future Prop Bet
Marvin Harrison Jr. Over 1,075 Receiving Yards (-110, DraftKings)
As the top wide receiver prospect we’ve seen in the past decade, Marvin Harrison Jr. is now paired with Kyler Murray, who previously supported DeAndre Hopkins to exceed 1,400 yards in 2020. The Arizona Cardinals pass-first offense is expected to exceed 500 pass attempts this season, which bodes well for Harrison’s yardage total.
Last year, Murray would have averaged around 4,100 passing yards over a 17-game season, indicating he is more than capable of supporting Harrison’s target volume. The primary competition for targets is Trey McBride, who will focus on inside routes, allowing Harrison to dominate. With these favorable conditions, Harrison is well-positioned to surpass this mark with ease.
NFL Best Passing Yards Future Prop Bet
Jalen Hurts Over 3,675.5 Passing Yards (-110, DraftKings)
Jalen Hurts has exceeded this yardage mark in both of the past two seasons, with 3,858 yards in 2023 and 3,701 yards in 2022. This year, he benefits from the addition of Kellen Moore, who has consistently overseen top passing offenses, including the #1 passing offense in 2023.
Despite throwing the ball the 11th least in the NFL last season, Hurts still managed to surpass this line. With a significant increase in pass attempts per game—from 31.5 to 37.2—Hurts is positioned for a substantial boost in yardage. Additionally, the arrival of Saquon Barkley, one of the premier pass-catching backs, further enhances his chances of hitting the over.
NFL Best Touchdowns Future Prop Bet
Stefon Diggs Under 7.5 Receiving Touchdowns (-110, DraftKings)
With Stefon Diggs now traded to the Houston Texans, his target volume is expected to drop significantly compared to his time in Buffalo. In Buffalo, Diggs was the clear top option amidst competition from Gabe Davis, Khalil Shakir, Dawson Knox, rookie Dalton Kincaid, and a weak run game. However, with the Texans, he faces stiffer competition from Nico Collins and Tank Dell, who have established solid chemistry with quarterback C.J Stroud. Collins had an impressive season last year, recording 80 catches on 109 targets and 8 touchdowns in 15 games. Meanwhile, Dell, in his last 4 healthy games, amassed 43 targets and 5 touchdowns and is anticipated to be ready for Week 1.
The Texans also have other receiving threats such as Dalton Schultz, Noah Brown, John Metchie, and Robert Woods. Additionally, the team is likely to emphasize a stronger run game with Joe Mixon, given Bobby Slowik’s scheme, which mirrors Joe Brady’s offensive approach from Buffalo more than Ken Dorsey’s did. Diggs scored only 1 touchdown in 7 games under Brady, compared to 7 touchdowns in 10 games under Dorsey.
Diggs will now be catching passes from Stroud, who had 23 passing touchdowns last season, compared to Josh Allen’s 29 or more in each of the last four years. With fewer touchdowns to go around, Diggs will have a tougher time surpassing this line. Additionally, Stroud, entering his second year, may experience a sophomore slump after a surprising rookie season. At 30 years old, Diggs might also face regression, especially following one of his least efficient seasons last year. Overall, while the primary concern is Diggs’ reduced volume compared to his Buffalo days, there are multiple factors suggesting he could stay under 8 touchdowns this season.
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