Strikeforce Diaz vs. Daley: Preview and Predictions

Gilbert Melendez (19-2-0) vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri (27-6-2)

While Nick Diaz and Paul Daley have the final slot on the fight card and have been getting the lion’s share of the attention, this lightweight title fight is a much more compelling and meaningful matchup in my humble opinion.

Melendez is the dark horse candidate in the race to be crowned the top lightweight in the world. Competing for Strikeforce puts him at a disadvantage from a recognizability standpoint, but the Skrap Pack member has as good a resume as Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard, if not better.

The 28-year-old has avenged each of his two career losses (Josh Thomson and Mitsuhiro Ishida) and boasts wins over Aoki, Clay Guida and a 2006 win over the man he’s facing here. A second win over kawajiri could make the argument for Melendez being the top 155-pound fighter in the sport even more compelling.

Of course, beating Kawajiri for a second time is far from a sure thing. Unlike Aoki and many other Japanese fighters who rely on finesse and technical proficiency to earn wins, Kawajiri goes by the nickname “Crusher” and prefers to use his solid wrestling and ground and pound to put away the opposition.

He used that formula with great success against Thomson on New Year’s Eve, dominating the former Strikeforce champ en route to a unanimous decision win, but it will be harder to accomplish with Melendez.

Just as a win puts Melendez in the conversation at the top of the 155-pound class, Kawajiri can cement his standing in the upper echelon by claiming the Strikeforce championship as well. He is a legitimate top 10 talent and this could end up being his North American coming out party.

Nick Diaz (24-7-1) vs. Paul Daley (27-9-2)

This main event match-up has the potential to be explosive.

The problem is that there is an equal possibility that it resembles every fight Daley has ever had against someone who plays to their strengths in the grappling department. I expect it to land somewhere between the two.

There is no question that Daley is one of the most dangerous strikers in the sport. His left hook has left a laundry list of contenders laying face down and out cold on the canvas. Ask Scott Smith. And Yuya Shirai. And Dustin Hazelett.

You get the the picture.

The rub – there’s gotta be a rub – is that Daley has displayed a severe allergy to the ground throughout his career; five of his nine losses have come by way of submission, with at least two others (Josh Koscheck and Nick Thompson) resulting from Daley’s wrestling deficiencies.

All that makes Diaz a very compelling opponent for “Semtex.”

The Strikeforce welterweight champion is confident enough in his boxing abilities that he could certain opt to trade with Daley, at least early on. However, Diaz also has the option of taking this fight to the floor and utilizing his underrated jiu jitsu, just as he did against Evangelista Cyborg last time out.

As much as Daley has serious knockout power, it’s been a long time since Diaz has been stopped by strikes. You have to go back to his 2002 loss to Jeremy Jackson to find a TKO that didn’t come from cuts.

Diaz won’t have the luxury of a reach advantage in this one, as both men measure out at 74-inches, but he’s great at pawing with his jab to keep space and find an opening.

How this fight plays out is up to Diaz. You know Daley is going to come forward looking to land with power, so it’s just a matter of whether or not the Cesar Gracie student wants to test his chin and throw hands.

If Diaz decides to stand, we could have a serious firefight and a new welterweight champion. If not, expect to hear a lot of complaining out of Daley in the near future.