College Football Week 4 Picks, Odds & Betting Lines

Last Saturday night was harrowing to the bitter end.

First, Florida needed three overtimes to beat Kentucky, then Colorado kicked a meaningless field goal after midnight to cover against Arizona State and cost me a winning week that I felt like I deserved.

But no matter. We press on.

If you’ve looked at the spreads this week, you know it’s a weird slate of games. There are a lot of blowouts and just for fun, the oddsmakers threw in a bunch of 7 ½ point lines to make you think twice. (Giving 7 ½ points with the favorite is like hitting on 16 in blackjack. You don’t want to do it but you’re damn tempted.)

As it is, I found myself avoiding those traps and trying to mine some gems out of this mudpit of a tout sheet.

And yes, some of these choices are highly illogical, but logic has gotten me way under .500 so far.

SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 20

Florida (plus-14 ½) at Alabama, 3:30 p.m., CBS

Let’s get this one out of the way. Yes, the Gators looked horrible last week. Yes, I piled my Gator gear up and stuffed it in a trash bag to put in the back of the closet until Will Muschamp is fired. Yes, the play clock was at zero. Yes, somewhere, Tim Tebow cries.
But through all that, a light shines. This week, Florida gets to be Kentucky. No pressure, nothing to lose facing the dark overlord Nick Saban. How many teams in the country would win in Tuscaloosa right now? Almost none, so no point in worrying about losing. Just cover, baby.

Osborne’s pick: Florida stays within two touchdowns.

Indiana (plus-13 ½) at Missouri, 4 p.m., SEC Network

Meanwhile, taking the favorite laying 13 ½ is like splitting your kings. You feel like you have to do it to go for the big score. Indiana stinks, and Missouri ought to trounce them at home if it is a serious SEC team.

Osborne’s pick: Tigers roll past the Hoosiers.

Iowa (plus-6 ½) at Pittsburgh, noon, ESPN2

Enough blackjack analogies, I love not having to give a touchdown to a team that seems to never score them. Picking on the Big Ten can be fun and educational, and I advise all young people to try it themselves and see how it feels.

Osborne’s pick: Pitt handles business at home.

Central Michigan (plus-3 ½) at Kansas, 3:30 p.m., SunSports

OK, I’m bitter at Central Michigan for last week, I admit it. But this has got to be Charlie Weis starring in “Coaching for Your Life.” If I am Kansas’s athletic director, I make it simple. Win this game going away, or get fired in the middle of the field and have to walk out naked hauling a huge boulder with Romeo Crennel sitting on top of it.

Osborne’s pick: Can’t believe I’m doing this, but Kansas.

(Side note: I picked Duke to wallop Kansas last week and the Blue Devils delivered. But somehow, this week, I picked Kansas to win and passed on Duke laying 17 to Tulane. Have I gone off the rails? Tune in Saturday to see.)

(Side note No. 2: I don’t know why I’m bringing this up now but my close advisor on all things college football, Dr. Tom Johnson, made me promise not to bet on any service academies this week for my own health and sanity. So, I didn’t, even though I was tempted by Army minus-2 ½ over Wake Forest and Navy minus-6 at Rutgers. But please strike all this from the record and carry on.)

Utah (plus-4 ½) at Michigan, 3:30 p.m., ABC

Like Chevy Chase said so many years ago, “This is crazy, this is crazy, this is crazy …” Forgot for a moment my disparaging remarks about the B1G and consider that Coach Chris Christie (aka Brady Hoke) MUST win this game or his seat is hotter than Weis’s or Muschamp’s. Yes, really.

Osborne’s pick: What have I done? Michigan.

Florida Atlantic (plus-4) at Wyoming, 4 p.m.

Let’s slow things down here a bit. I think I have done enough to prove my sanity so far, so let’s talk Owls crossing the country and knocking off Wyoming in an … upset? Let’s do the compliment sandwich for the Cowboys. They scored first against Oregon, struggled against Montana and I like their uniforms.

Osborne’s pick: Yep, Florida Atlantic.

Georgia Southern (plus-2 ½) at South Alabama, 7:30 p.m.

Wow, two non-televised games. That seems almost impossible. The Eagles are a solid club and they may be too tough for South Alabama, even though the Jaguars have put their program on the fast track and kept up nicely.

Osborne’s pick: Georgia Southern wins on the road.

Georgia Tech (plus-8) at Virginia Tech, noon, ESPN

The Yellow Jackets are my new favorite team for the over-under. They can’t stop anyone and their offense is prolific. You’re never out of the game on either side when the Rambling Wreck is out there.

Osborne’s pick: Over 52 ½

Old Dominion (plus-7) at Rice, noon, ROOT Sports

You’re probably wondering, does this guy pick any teams I’ve ever heard of? Well, all the teams you have heard of are playing junior varsity teams this week. Next week we should be in full conference swing, but we aren’t there yet. So, for now you must tolerate my weird teams, like the Monarchs. (Yes, the above photo is Taylor Heinicke getting the Walter Payton Award for being the top player in Division I-AA, or whatever you call it. And he’s been around long enough to still be playing in the team’s second year of I-A ball.)

Osborne’s pick: Old Dominion boils Rice.

Utah State (plus-2 ½) at Arkansas State, 7 p.m., ESPN3.com

OK, one last weird one and I’ll try to finish strong. The Aggies are down to their second quarterback playing hurt, which means their third quarterback is warming up. A-State is strong enough to win at home by a field goal.

Osborne’s pick: Arkansas State by just enough.

Mississippi State (plus-10) at LSU, 7 p.m., ESPN

In a game that will be shown on American television, this is the Bulldogs’ one chance to creep into the A Flight of the SEC West. If they don’t take it, see you in the Purina Cat Gravy Bowl.

Osborne’s pick: Mississippi State keeps it close enough.

Miami (plus-7 ½) at Nebraska, 8 p.m., ESPN2

I’ll take Miami to win 31-30 when Nebraska misses a two-point conversion at the end. Shocked right? I mean, no one can beat Mike Rozier and the mighty Cornhuskers. But I have a feeling about this Bernie Kosar kid. Excuse me for a moment. (Inaudible whispers …) I’ve been informed that it is NOT 1984, so please allow me to modify my pick.

Osborne’s pick: Nebraska takes out B1G frustrations on Miami.

Last week: 5-6-1
YTD: 15-24-1