NFL Picks, Odds & Betting Lines: Week 13

What are you thankful for this time of year?

We’re thankful for Justin Forsett and another winning week in Week 12. 8-7 for the week, thanks in part to the Ravens on Monday night, moves us to 88-85-2 on the season.

Throughout this year, we’ve been pretty bad on Thursday night and it has led to us playing from behind most weeks. This Thursday is different because we will all be stuffing our faces with turkey, stuffing, adult beverages and mingling with family or friends throughout the day.

There are three divisional games on the slate for Thursday. Let’s get out in front this week and have a big week.

Chicago at Detroit (-7)

The Bears have won two straight games at home against non-playoff teams in Minnesota and Tampa Bay, while Detroit has lost two road games in the last two weeks to Arizona and New England. Over their last five Thanksgiving games, Detroit is 1-4, beating Matt Flynn and the Green Bay Packers in blowout fashion last year. This is a “get right” game for Detroit, as their offense hasn’t scored a touchdown in eight quarters. The perfect remedy for struggling offense? The Chicago Bears defense.

THE PICK: Lions (-7)

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Philadelphia at Dallas (-3)

Tony Romo may be playing the best football of his career … and he’s hurt. This game is for first place in the NFC East and we’d rather back Romo over Mark Sanchez. We’ve said all year that the Cowboys are better to back on the road, as Jerry’s World doesn’t pose the league’s best home field advantage. These teams are both playing exceptional football and looks like a season split. Dallas takes this one.

THE PICK: Cowboys (-3)

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Seattle at San Francisco (-1)

This game is typically for first place in the division or first seed in the NFC the last few years? This week it’s for inside track to the playoffs, while the loser is in danger of missing the playoffs with a month to go. San Francisco has won three straight but not one win was against a team with more than four Ws. Seattle is fresh off a drumming of Arizona and the press conference of Richard Sherman and Doug Baldwin that caught the nation by storm should loosen this Seattle team. San Francisco has been struggling on offense the last two weeks against New York and Washington.

THE PICK: Seahawks (+1)

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Washington at Indianapolis (-9.5)

Colt McCoy was named the starter for this one as Jay Gruden has decided to bench Robert Griffin III. Indianapolis bounced back off their embarrassing home loss to New England by trouncing the Jacksonville Jaguars, a hapless professional football team. The last time McCoy started, he lit a fire under Washington and they stole a game in Dallas. He’s simply a better decision maker and frankly it appears his teammates play harder for him.

THE PICK: Redskins (+9.5)

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Tennessee at Houston (-6.5)

The Texans turn back to Ryan Fitzpatrick for this one as Ryan Mallett tore his pectoral and is out for the season. In Houston’s five wins they’ve won every game by six points or more. They’ll have to lean on their defense and running game to put away Tennessee who has two wins and is in full-on golf mode. Houston defends their home field and covers.

THE PICK: Texans (-6.5)

Cleveland at Buffalo (-2.5)

What a story line! The Browns come in at 7-4 with their last playoff visit in 2002 and the Bills come in to this game 6-5 with their last playoff visit coming in 1999. Two teams dying to revitalize hardcore fan bases with a postseason birth. Donte Whitner provided the chalkboard material for this one, badmouthing Buffalo this past offseason. The Bills are aware of his words and are riding high off an impressive 38-3 win over the Jets in Detroit during a tumultuous week that moved the game from Buffalo to Detroit. The fans will be rowdy!

THE PICK: Bills (-2.5)

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San Diego at Baltimore (-5.5)

San Diego, across the country at 1 p.m. Yeah, we’ve seen this movie before and we’ve learned our lesson after backing the Chargers in Miami where they were humiliated 37-0. Ravens are on fire, running the football like a top-10 team. They’ll take care of business against the jet-lagged Chargers.

THE PICK: Ravens (-5.5)

N.Y. Giants (-2.5) at Jacksonville

Who cares about this football game? Las Vegas and us, that’s who. The Giants have Odell Beckham and the Jaguars do not. The boys in blue are still playing for their coach, as it was apparent last week in the close loss to Dallas. Jacksonville’s home field advantage is comparable to the San Diego Padres during a Saturday afternoon game in 85 degree weather, also known as “nothing.”

THE PICK: Giants (-2.5)

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Cincinnati (-4) at Tampa Bay

The third of three straight road games for the Bengals, as they were victorious in their first two over New Orleans and Houston. Tampa is a bad football, but thanks to the NFC South they are still alive believe it or not. Lovie Smith told the media he wont play the young guys because “they are still alive.” Crazy or not, the Bucs are alive and they catch the Bengals desperate to get back to Cincinnati for a home game. It’s hard to win a road game in the NFL, let alone three straight on the road, just ask the mighty Denver Broncos who just went 1-2 on a three game road trip.

THE PICK: Bucs (+4)

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Oakland at St. Louis (-7)

Oakland got their win out of the way, winning their “Super Bowl” over Kansas City last Thursday. That still doesn’t change how bad they are and how good the St. Louis Rams are playing. The Rams should have beaten the Chargers last week, but Shaun Hill threw an ill advised interception at the goal line in the waning seconds to throw away a potential game tying field goal or game winning touchdown. Their defense has come alive in recent weeks and will make life increasingly difficult for Derrick Carr.

THE PICK: Rams (-7)

New Orleans at Pittsburgh (-4)

The excuses have to stop eventually. Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints are playing lousy football. Losers of three straight home games, the most recent on Monday night at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens, the Saints are struggling, but are still in the NFC South hunt. The Steelers have to keep pace with the rest of the AFC North and protect their home field. They are off a bye and Leveon Bell has been a load the last few weeks running the ball. The Saints have six days to correct their run defense giving up 182 yards to Justin Forsett and stop one of the NFL’s best running backs.

THE PICK: Steelers (-4)

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Carolina at Minnesota (-2.5)

The Carolina Panthers off the bye under head coach Ron Rivera are 0-3. That is not a good sign for a team needing to win all if not most of their remaining games to get in the playoffs. Cam Newton, rested or not, is still hurt and his play has been inconsistent to say the least. We’ll stick with the trend here and back Minnesota as Rivera’s team will likely start slow off the bye week as they have the previous three years.

THE PICK: Vikings (-2.5)

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Arizona (-2.5) at Atlanta

Arizona plays defense. Atlanta does not play defense. Drew Stanton was really bad last week in the toughest environment in the NFL up in Seattle, so one would assume under Bruce Arians he bounces back and plays a good game against an inferior Atlanta defense. After Falcons head coach Mike Smith mistakenly took a timeout last week that helped the Browns complete a come from behind victory the Falcons playoff hopes were gone.

THE PICK: Cardinals (-2.5)

New England at Green Bay (-3)

Green Bay minus three tells us Vegas sees this as a toss up game with the usual 3-3.5 point bump line makers use for home teams. The Patriots have won seven straight since their embarrassing loss to Kansas City, but they run in to the Packers who are 5-0 at home and have made improvements defensively since moving Clay Matthews to inside linebacker. A cold tundra and a raucous crowd could be about the only thing that slows down Tom Brady and the Patriots.

THE PICK: Packers (-3)

Denver (-1) at Kansas City

Kansas City is fraud. They showed it front and center last Thursday with that disappointing loss in Oakland, who had yet to win a game. They’ll fall behind in this game and Alex Smith can’t throw them back in to football games. Denver cleaned things up last week against Miami, running for over 200 yards and Peyton getting back on track. They’ll probably get Julius Thomas back for this game as well and with unfortunate circumstances Eric Berry will not be playing for the Chiefs, creating a huge mismatch for Denver.

THE PICK: Broncos (-1)

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Miami (-6) at N.Y. Jets

Geno Smith was named starter for this Monday night game against Miami. We repeat…Geno Smith was named starter for this football game. The Jets have quit, as shown in a 38-3 embarrassing loss to Buffalo in a neutral site on Monday. Miami needs this game after blowing a lead in Denver last week.

THE PICK: Dolphins (-6)

Best of luck and Happy Thanksgiving!