NFL Week 12 Picks, Odds & Betting Lines

Oh, what could have been …

5-4 heading into the late games Sunday and the primetime games still left, we looked poised for a winning week, but losing three out of four, including Pittsburgh on Monday night who barely won and did not cover, hurt our record for Week 11 (6-8).

We turn to Week 12 at 80-78-2 for the season, slightly above .500, but well below our standards. This can be a make-or-break week as a handful of games feature spreads of a touchdown or more and you have to hope for late points or guard against the backdoor.

Either way, the snow is falling across the country and we’re looking to get hot just in time.

It starts in Week 12 …

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Kansas City (-7) at Oakland

One team, the Kansas City Chiefs, is the hottest team in football. The other, the Oakland Raiders, hasn’t won a game in its last 16 tries. The Thursday night visiting team is always at a disadvantage with traveling on a short week, but if there is one team built to win on the road with three days rest, it’s Kansas City. Alex Smith doesn’t turn it over and Jamaal Charles can carry a team.

THE PICK: Chiefs (-7)

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Cleveland at Atlanta (-3)

The Browns happily welcome back Josh Gordon, who should light a spark to their offense that was absent in their Week 11 loss at home to Houston. The Texans could stop the run. Atlanta cannot. Cleveland should get back to their ground-and-pound style and utilize Gordon in the passing game. Atlanta may be in first place, but their record is what it is. They are a 4-6 football team with major deficiencies.

THE PICK: Browns (+3)

Tennessee at Philadelphia (-11)

Philadelphia was in a no-win spot last week traveling to Lambeau Field in the tundra against a red-hot Aaron Rodgers. This is the perfect bounce back for them. Tennessee ranks 29^th in the league against the run, so look for Philadelphia to establish LeSean McCoy in order to make life easier on Mark Sanchez who was battered around in Green Bay. Tennessee poured their hearts out to fall short to Pittsburgh on Monday night. Look for them to come out flat in this one.

THE PICK: Eagles (-11)

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Detroit at New England (-7)

Real good game here. Second game in a row on the road for the Lions as their offense was non-existent in a loss in Arizona last week. If New England isn’t the hottest team in the league, New England is. Darrelle Revis has good career numbers against Calvin Johnson and he’ll have to be good for the Patriots to pull away in this one. Detroit’s defense should keep Jonas Gray and Shane Vereen in check, so it’ll be up to Matt Stafford to provide the offense with a jolt to keep this one close.

THE PICK: Lions (+7)

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Green Bay (-9.5) at Minnesota

We just aren’t sure how you stop Aaron Rodgers right now. This is a tough line to back, on the road, against a divisional opponent, but Minnesota showed little life against a Bears team that has been gashed in recent weeks. But you have to wonder if Green Bay loses a little focus here with New England on the horizon next week. Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer will have a gameplan to slow down the Packers’s offensive attack, keeping the game close or even “backdooring” the cover.

THE PICK: Vikings (+9.5)

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Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-14)

Indianapolis just lost Ahmad Bradshaw to a broken ankle this past weekend after being slaughtered 42-20 at home against New England. We know Andrew Luck doesn’t typically lose two games in a row, but it’s their defense that seems to be letting them down lately. Denard Robinson and the Jaguars are off their bye week and will be looking to play spoiler down the stretch. With the way he’s running the football lately, we like Jacksonville to keep this game closer than most pundits believe.

THE PICK: Jacksonville (+14)

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Cincinnati at Houston (-2)

Can Cincinnati win two important games on the road inside domes? The Bengals looked really good in blowing out the Saints in Louisiana last week, but we all know it is tough to win consecutive games on the road. Just ask Denver. Houston’s quarterback change paid off as Ryan Mallett looked sharp in his debut performance. Houston has the best player on the field, J.J. Watt. He’ll make a big play or two.

THE PICK: Texans (-2)

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N.Y. Jets at Buffalo (-4.5)

You have to favor the Jets here. The game has been rescheduled from Sunday to 7 p.m. ET Monday in Detroit because of the blizzards in Buffalo. The Bills have missed multiple days of practice throughout the week due to the unimaginable amounts of snow the city has received the last few days. The Jets are off a bye and a win against the Steelers two weeks ago. Mike Vick is playing well enough to give them a chance to win and their defense is always a tough task for any offense, let alone one that stalls in the red zone as often as Buffalo’s does. Jets want to avenge the embarrassing loss Buffalo handed them earlier this season.

THE PICK: Jets (+4.5)

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Tampa Bay at Chicago (-5.5)

Just like we talked about with Cincinnati, it is very tough to win two games in a row on the road. Tampa Bay beat a lowly Washington team last week and now must go to Chicago to play the Bears. This should be a fun game as both teams have two sets of receivers that are highlight reels waiting to happen. But neither team has much defense. Chicago is fighting, with very little air, to stay in the playoff race in the NFC. We’ll back the team who doesn’t have to travel … again.

THE PICK: Bears (-5.5)

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Arizona at Seattle (-6.5)

We continue to keep picking against Drew Stanton and this Cardinals team and we keep getting burned. Well not this time. They know what’s at stake. A win up in Seattle and the division is all but theirs barring a major collapse. Tough place to play, we know, but it’s hard to bet against Bruce Arians. He puts his players in the best position possible to win every game. Seattle got run all over by Jamaal Charles last week and we imagine Andre Ellington can do the same. Cardinals keep this one close with Seattle’s lack of offensive weapons and turmoil surrounding Marshawn Lynch’s off-the-field issues.

THE PICK: Cardinals (+6.5)

St. Louis at San Diego (-5)

Phillip Rivers took a LICK in last week’s game that had him crawling around on the ground in severe pain. We know he’s a tough guy as he’s played through injury before, but the St. Louis Rams are the last team a beat up quarterback wants to play right now. They harassed Peyton Manning all last week on their way to an upset victory and are playing inspired football right now behind Shaun Hill and Jeff Fisher. Look for them to keep this one close or pull the upset as San Diego has shown us nothing the last month.

THE PICK: Rams (+5)

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Miami at Denver (-7)

Denver is banged up. Emmanuel Sanders and Julius Thomas have yet to practice this week and the interior of their offensive line is playing poorly. Miami has the pass rush and the running game to keep Peyton Manning off the field. Since Week 6, Miami hasn’t lost a football game by more than four points, home or away. They’ll stay within a touchdown as Ryan Tannehill has really elevated his play.

THE PICK: Dolphins (+7)

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Washington at San Francisco (-9)

Washington is dysfunctional. They are drama-filled and do not like one another. That is not the recipe to take with you on a West Coast trip to play a tough San Francisco 49ers team who play hard for their coach every week. Robert Griffin has regressed and it’s looking like his teammates don’t want to play for him. San Francisco will turn Washington one dimensional and that’s not what you want when RG3 is your quarterback.

THE PICK: 49ers (-9)

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Dallas (-3.5) at N.Y. Giants

It’s sort of amazing the Giants are on primetime football so much this year. They aren’t very good. But Dallas is and this rivalry always produces a good game. Giants were very close to upsetting the San Francisco 49ers last week, but were crippled by Eli Manning’s five interceptions. That’s what you get with Eli Manning, but in this rivalry and a week to forget about his dreadful game, we expect him to be better on Sunday night. Dallas is off their bye from their London victory so maybe a slow start leads us to a close game.

THE PICK: Giants (+3.5)

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Baltimore at New Orleans (-3.5)

New Orleans has won two home games in a row. That’s actually tough to type, but with losses to San Francisco and Cincinnati at home, it’s desperation time. Especially since the 4-6 Saints are still tied for first place! But they aren’t playing a slouch team. Baltimore is +80 in point differential, second-best in the AFC and the Saints are 0-2 against the AFC North so far in 2014. Saints may win this game, but 3.5 is too much to give a team like Baltimore, who needs to keep pace with the rest of the AFC North.

THE PICK: Ravens (+3.5)

Best of luck!

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