NFL Picks, Odds & Betting Lines: Week 14

Lesson No. 1 in sports handicapping: Never bet on or against your favorite team. They always seem to rip your heart out. We thought we knew the Dolphins, but apparently we didn’t.

Miami didn’t show up on Monday night and barely escaped New York with a three-point victory, failing to cover the six-point spread and crushing our chances of a double-digit winning week.

But, it’s tough to complain about a 9-7 week and overall we boast a solid 97-92-2 record against the spread.

On to Week 14!

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Dallas (-3.5) at Chicago

Well, it’s December and the Dallas Cowboys are in playoff contention again. “Seems like Groundhog Day every year for the Cowboys in December,” says my buddy TJ Hatter. So is this the year the December swoon continues its trolling away to the Dallas fan base? No. They have a tough schedule ahead of them to close out the season so this is a must-win. With a week of rest, a vaunted running game and a banged up Alshon Jeffery, Dallas should be confident rolling in to Chicago to face that Swiss cheese defense that saw Joique Bell and Calvin Johnson tear through them like a Kleenex during flu season.

THE PICK: Cowboys (-3.5)

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Baltimore at Miami (-3)

Ravens won in Miami last year and despite Miami’s 7-5 record they have some flaws. Their run defense has been atrocious the last two weeks, allowing 478 yards in two games to Denver and the Jets. Their offensive line has not been great either, with every member of the line owning a negative pass grade per Pro Football Focus’ offensive line and Baltimore’s pass rush is their strength. It’s a must-win for both teams and Baltimore has been in this position before.

THE PICK: Ravens (+3)

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Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (-3)

This game is always a grudge match. Both quarterbacks have not played well as of late, but Andy Dalton is typically better at home. Cincinnati knows how important this game is as they own a 1.5 game lead over the rest of the AFC North and a win against Pittsburgh would put them in great position to clinch the AFC North crown. Ben traditionally struggles with Cincinnati’s defense so we’ll back the trend here and favor the home team.

THE PICK: Bengals (-3)

Indianapolis (-3.5) at Cleveland

For as good as the AFC North has been, they’ve struggled against the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts are 2-1 against the North and took on a Cleveland team unsure of their quarterback. They’re going with Brian Hoyer this week and he is too limited to match points with the #1 passing offense and total offense in the NFL. This is where the Browns season starts to fade. With Houston playing well, Indianapolis needs to keep winning to secure the AFC South title.

THE PICK: Colts (-3.5)

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Houston (-5) at Jacksonville

Jacksonville came back from a 21-0 deficit against the New York Giants at home to win last week. The big story is that they were down 21-0 to the Giants, who aren’t very good and don’t possess J.J. Watt on their defensive line. Houston is trending upwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick must feel good after his six touchdown outbreak against Tennessee last week.

THE PICK: Texans (-5)

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N.Y. Giants at Tennessee (PICK)

Game stinks. Tough to pick these games when both teams stink and have nothing to play for. Usually we favor the home team in a PICK ‘EM game, but Tennessee is really bad and we don’t know if Zach Mettenberger will be under center or Jake Locker. We don’t trust either guy and imagine the Giants will play hard for Tom Coughlin after last week’s collapse.

THE PICK: Giants (PICK)

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Carolina at New Orleans (-9.5)

Normally in this spot we’d say “Carolina needs the game, they’ll be desperate,” but that could have been said about last week’s contest with the Vikings and they “no-showed.” Carolina just isn’t very good right now and after a huge road win for the Saints, you can bet they’re pumped to come back home and show that three game home losing streak was just a fluke.

THE PICK: Saints (-9.5)

Tampa Bay at Detroit (-9.5)

The Lions are off 10 days rest and a Thanksgiving spanking of their division rival Chicago Bears. They know they need to keep pace with Green Bay in order to win the division or make the playoffs as a Wild Card. They cannot let a two win team in Tampa Bay come in to their stadium and beat them. Detroit looks poised to avoid the December swoon that hampered them last season.

THE PICK: Lions (-9.5)

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St. Louis (-2.5) at Washington

Washington is a complete dumpster fire right now. Despite Colt McCoy’s 392 yards passing they were still blown out by Indianapolis last week. St. Louis, on the other hand, is playing as good of football as anybody in the league. Fresh off a 52-0 beat down of Oakland, Aaron Donald and the Rams defensive line will feast on McCoy and the offensive line of the Redskins.

THE PICK: Rams (-2.5)

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N.Y. Jets at Minnesota (-6)

The Jets are so bad. Even when they rush for 277 yards on Miami they found a way to lose. Minnesota will see that and stack the box, forcing an inept Geno Smith to win with his arm on the road. We don’t trust Geno Smith and enjoy betting against him. Minnesota is trending in the right direction after a blowout of Carolina in Week 13.

THE PICK: Vikings (-6)

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Buffalo at Denver (-10)

Despite their 2-1 record against the AFC East, Denver hasn’t found life easy playing that division this year. Needing to come back from an 11-point deficit to beat Miami, a late pick-six to ice a game against the Jets and being throttled by New England in Foxboro, Denver’s AFC East opponents have given them all they can handle this year. This should be no different as the Bills desperately need this one to stay in the AFC East. We would expect a few trick plays from Buffalo to match Manning and that offense.

THE PICK: Bills (+10)

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Kansas City at Arizona (-1)

Both quarterbacks are not playing well right now as both teams have lost two straight with struggling offenses. Arizona was manhandled on the road in Atlanta last week and should bounce back nicely this week at home after two games on the road. Their defense knows they need to step up and shut Kansas City down with Drew Stanton struggling to find consistency.

THE PICK: Cardinals (-1)

San Francisco (-8) at Oakland

Tough game to pick. One team looks to be in turmoil and every rumor has their coach fired already, while the other team follows up their lone win with a 52-0 defeat to St. Louis. This isn’t much of a travel for the 49ers and their fans should show up in Oakland (hopefully they do it safely) and carry their team to a MUST-WIN game.

THE PICK: 49ers (-8)

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Seattle at Philadelphia (-1)

Two good defenses. Two good running games. Two good teams. This game is big for playoff seeding in the NFC. Seattle can smell Arizona struggling and the NFC West division within reach. Does Philadelphia with 10 days off let down a bit after their impressive win in Dallas on Thanksgiving night?

THE PICK: Seahawks (-1)

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New England (-3.5) at San Diego

New England is so good off a loss, especially on prime time. After Losing to GB last week they flew right to San Diego and have been there all week. Strictly business. San Diego had to fly back west after a monumental come-from-behind win over Baltimore on the East Coast last week. Revis and Browner should shut down Floyd and Allen. We’ll bet on Brady over Rivers.

THE PICK: Patriots (-3.5)

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Atlanta at Green Bay (-12)

Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Rodgers. He’s pretty good. 20 touchdowns and zero interceptions at Lambeau this year. They are playing at another level when it comes to beating teams in Green Bay. Atlanta is a dome team from the safe, we just don’t see them hanging with the Packers in this one.

THE PICK: Packers (-12)

BEST OF LUCK!