LeBron James and the Cavaliers have the second-best home record in the NBA (Getty)
Saturday at 8:30 p.m. Eastern, the 30-11 Cleveland Cavaliers host the 33-9 San Antonio Spurs in a game that will be broadcast nationally on ABC. LeBron James and the Cavaliers are 19-3 at home this season, a record that is the second-best in the NBA. But in San Antonio, Cleveland hosts a team that has the second-best road record in the Association (17-4).
The sports books are a slight lean in favor of the home team, with Cleveland opening as a 2-point favorite.
Since then most books have moved to Cleveland -2.5 according to OddsShark, with Bovada listing Cleveland as a 3-point favorite and Station Casinos and the Mirage both listing the home team as a 2-point favorite. The point total, which opened at 211.5, is either 211.5 or 212 on most books with Bovada (212) and the Mirage (212.5) being the exceptions. OddsShark has a predicted score of 115-101 in favor of the Spurs.
Cleveland is 18-21-2 against the spread this season, which includes an 11-9-2 mark at Quicken Loans Arena. Tyronn Lue’s team is 3-7 ATS in its last ten games, picking up two of those victories (at Sacramento, vs. Phoenix) in its last three games. 21-19-1 with the OVER on the season, Cleveland is 11-9-1 with the OVER at home. The UNDER has hit in five of Cleveland’s last ten games, including three of its last five.
As for San Antonio, Gregg Popovich’s team is 24-17-1 ATS this season with a 12-8-1 record in road games. The Spurs are 6-4 in the last ten games ATS, with Thursday’s 14-point win over Denver ending a two-game losing streak ATS. San Antonio is 26-16 with the OVER this season, which includes a 12-9 mark away from home, and they’ve won five straight with the OVER. According to OddsShark, the OVER has come out on top in ten of the last 13 games in the Spurs/Cavaliers series.
PREDICTION: San Antonio +2.5 with the OVER. The individual matchup between Kawhi Leonard and LeBron James will be entertaining, but the status of Kevin Love (back spasms) is something to keep an eye on. A limited (or absent) Love would have a greater impact on the Cavs than Pau Gasol’s (broken hand) will have on San Antonio.
San Antonio will also be without guard Tony Parker (left foot), but their depth at the point is better than that of the Cavs beyond Kyrie Irving.
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