Breakdown
Though the Cardinals’ offense was inefficient (19th in yards per play) in Week 1, I’m returning to the well for an Arizona QB-WR stack. Not only should last week’s performance lower Arizona ownership percentages, but they should have no trouble getting back on track against a Colts defense that just made Jared Goff and the Los Angeles Rams look like the ’07 Patriots.
Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald is the obvious choice here, as Fitz saw a team-high 13 targets in Week 1 and may receive even more looks with John Brown battling a quad injury and the running game in flux sans David Johnson.
Going with a cheap stack allows me to get to elite options in Julio Jones and Ezekiel Elliott. Jones has burned Green Bay for at least 42 DK points in two of three meetings (hat tip PFF’s Scott Barrett), while ‘Zeke showed off some PPR goodies to go with his typical heavy run-game workload:
Chris Hogan is one of my favorite potential contrarian picks of the week. After a Week 1 dud, a lot of people will be off him, especially with guys like Tyreek Hill ($6,200), Stefon Diggs ($6,100), Randall Cobb ($5,900) and Keenan Allen ($5,800) not much more expensive. However, Hogan should see more work out of the slot with Danny Amendola likely out, and as Adam Thielen proved on Monday night, that’s going to be a highly valuable role against the Saints’ still shaky secondary.
Per NFL.com’s Matt Harmon, the Saints allowed 169 yards on 12 targets to slot receivers in Week 1. In a game with the highest projected total of the week, every Saints and Patriots player is in play, but Hogan is the sneakiest way to get exposure.
One of the more interesting decisions of the week is at the $4,100 price point. That’s where Buck Allen, Tarik Cohen, Cooper Kupp and Corey Davis are all priced. All look like immense values after Week 1, but I’m going with Allen, who may not receive as many carries as last week but should see a ton of targets as the pass-catching RB on a team that has thrown to the position more than anyone else the last couple of years. As the likely lowest-owned player of the quartet, Allen is a strong GPP play. In cash games, though, I’d rather go with Cohen at RB.
Elsewhere, Tyrell Williams performed about as well as can be expected (five catches, 57 yards) against Denver’s elite secondary. He’s Philip Rivers’ clear No. 2 target, he’s a big-play threat, and he has big upside at home against the Dolphins.
Charles Clay doesn’t get to play the Jets again, but it’s the nine targets (no Buffalo WR had more than four) and role as No. 1 pass-catcher that I’m chasing for a bargain $3,000.
And finally, the Rams defense. It’s difficult to read too much into a huge Week 1 performance considering they were playing the Colts, but now Aaron Donald is back, and they face a Washington team that committed four turnovers last week.
