MLB Odds & Betting Picks: Saturday, July 28th

New money, who dis?

We head into the weekend after going 4-0 in our picks last night. Sure, our parlay consisted of two walk-off wins and a rain-out, but we’ll take it every time. I posted the results on Twitter, and now the pressure mounts for a profitable encore.

Today is an interesting day, only because there are a few pitching matchups slapped together because of trades. Cole Hamels and JA Happ have both been replaced by spot starters in the rotation, creating great matchups for their respective opponents.

This is going up after the first Royals-Yankee game on the board, which didn’t exactly start out in favor of the favorites. The Yankees were as high as -460 at some betting sites before start, but Luis Severino was pulled with one out in the fifth after allowing six runs. Severino has now allowed 19 earned runs over his last 19.1 innings pitched.

Feels good to avoid the landmines. Now on to today’s action:

MLB Best Bets for Saturday

White Sox over Blue Jays

Mentioned above, Happ is replaced by John Axford as today’s starter. That is not a typo. 35 year old Axford makes his first major league start today against Lucas Giolito and the White Sox. It’ll be a bullpen day for the Jays, the second time they’ve done so this week. In the previous outing, they lost 8-1 at home to the Twins. I hate backing Lucas Giolito, but he’s had some quality starts over the last month and his team has given him good run support in his starts. If you can find the over at 9 I’d hop on that too.

Nationals/Marlins Over 8

From Giolito to Gio Gonzalez. Despite one good start against this exact team, Gonzalez has been Washington’s worst starter. If you take away the Marlins start, in which Gonzalez didn’t factor into the decision but the Nats came away with the win, the team has lost his last six starts. Trevor Richards walked seven in his only career start against the Nats three weeks ago, and was pulled in the fourth inning for a no-decision. Leave him in a little longer this time, will ya?

Parlay: Astros/Red Sox/Indians ML

Heading back to the Sox for a three-teamer. Rick Porcello would be a story this season if not for the dominance of Chris Sale, and he gets the nod tonight against Jake Odorizzi and the Twins. The Sox have plenty of experience against Odorizzi, and the Boston team total might be worth taking a look at if the team starts their normal lineup. Verlander gets the start on a full week’s rest against Ariel Jurado and the Rangers. The Astros should beat up on Jurado. Mike Clevenger starts for Cleveland against the Tigers, but it’s really about Blaine Hardy getting the nod for Detroit. Hardy is filling in for Francisco Liriano, and got worked in his last outing as a starter.

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