It’s degenerate Sunday, so let’s go full-send on the last game of the World Cup. France and Croatia feels like a one-sided matchup, which does present some tasty gambling opportunities.
With late goals and crazy upsets, it’s been a tough few weeks for the gambling crowd. It feels like nearly every game over the past few weeks has been a toss-up, and nobody should face the experience of wagering on a match that goes to a shootout.
World Cup Final Odds
France are the favorite here, priced at -255 to outright raise the trophy against Croatia’s +225.
On the three-way moneyline, France is a reasonable -105 according to OddsShark.com. Croatia is valued at +375 for a regulation upset, while a draw after 90 can be backed at +225. France are laying a half-goal on the spread, but are still favored at around -110. Croatia getting a half-goal is a nice bet for upset-seekers, but doesn’t have a crazy payout at -110.
The goal total for the World Cup final is set at 2, with the under (-120) favored against the over (+105).
World Cup Final Best Bets
Let’s start this off simple: I think France are going to win this match, and win it in regulation. I feel that way because Croatia have made a habit of conceding in regulation (trailed in three straight), and France have been better on defense than people give them credit. They’ve only trailed for nine minutes and twelve seconds in this tournament, helped by both a good defense and outstanding play from Hugo Lloris. If France can score first, they will be able to step on Croatia and open the game up.
Croatia are very methodical, and will throw Mandzukic into the mixer non-stop until they grind out a goal. I respect that, and won’t be counting out Croatia to score.
Now that I now how I feel about this matchup, I can bet accordingly.
If France can score first and keep up the intensity, then a double result bet on France could be a great way to get favorable odds. My favorites are France/France at +160, but I also like Tie/France at +285. The last two finals have finished 1-0, so expect things to be tense in the opening minutes as both teams settle nerves.
The goal total being two is interesting. It’s low because of the previously stated history, but this mismatch could bring us more goals. If there is a goal in the second half, the total is a lock to at least push. I like the over, and am surprised it’s a slight underdog at 5Dimes and other sportsbooks.
If you think Croatia have a serious shot, this will be a low-scoring affair. Croatia won’t be able to keep up in a shootout with France, and a Croatia win would resemble the grittiness that’s defined their tournament. Just as insurance against this, a draw/draw double result at +350 would cash if we finished scoreless after 90 minutes.
Alas, I can’t see that happening. England should have had more against them, and France are levels better than their neighbors. It won’t be coming home, but it’ll be close enough to visit on weekends.