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On the surface, it’s hard to deny that Week 6 looks like a Tevin Coleman fantasy football week once again. Following the early-season injury to Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman, it was largely Coleman’s show for three weeks.
Unfortunately, that three-game stretch led to some mixed results and likely a bit of frustration for fantasy owners. And as we head into Week 6 and begin setting lineups, Coleman is a name who’ll stick out quite a bit. This is due to the fact that Freeman was ruled out for the team’s game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers due to a foot injury.
Whenever Freeman is sidelined, his 25-year-old backfield mate becomes an intriguing option, and that certainly stands true this week. Let’s take a deeper dive into the situation and break down the start-sit topic surrounding Coleman.
Key Stats and Tevin Coleman’s Fantasy Outlook
We’ll first look at the matchup as well as recent production before diving deeper into the situation. All information on fantasy points and statistics for defense vs. position are from ESPN.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. running backs: 75 attempts, 276 rushing yards, 328 receiving yards, six combined touchdowns (No. 6 most fantasy points per game)
- Coleman played 57 percent of offensive snaps last game Freeman missed (Week 4), per Football Outsiders
- Averages 15 carries per game when Freeman does not play (three games)
On the surface, the bulk of the numbers check out for Coleman here. The only slightly concerning thing is that he went from out-snapping teammate Ito Smith 53-10 in Week 3 to just 40-30 in Week 4. In the game against the Cincinnati Bengals when Smith picked up additional snaps, Coleman still out-touched the rookie back 17-10.
Should You Start or Sit Tevin Coleman?
We should enter this spot fully expecting Coleman to lose some work to Smith, especially since the Falcons coaching staff seems to be growing more confident in him. Even still, Coleman is the clear-cut starter and will see more than enough work against a poor defense to justify starting in most fantasy leagues.
The Falcons’ Week 6 starter had one very “bad” game, which came against one of the league’s best run defenses in the New Orleans Saints. In that game, Coleman totaled just 33 yards on 15 carries and caught two passes, but bailed fantasy owners out by catching a touchdown.
I’d be comfortable using Coleman in 12-team leagues as a RB2 or flex play and also in 14-team leagues. Playing him in 10-teamers is somewhat iffy, but if your options are below average there, I’m fine starting him in the flex.
The Buccaneers just allow too many big plays and the Falcons should score a ton of points. The current over/under on the game is set at 57.5 points, per OddsShark.
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