Getty Gallery: 3/6
No. 4 Northwestern Covers +14 Spread vs. Ohio State in Big Ten Championship
Consider these results from some of Ohio State's games this season: Ohio State 20 Purdue 49, Ohio State 36 Nebraska 31 and Ohio State 52 Maryland 51. The Buckeyes have shown a propensity for underperforming against inferior opponents. Even though this is the Big Ten title game, this could be a letdown spot for the Buckeyes after a massive rivalry win last week.
I have some skepticism that Ohio State is going to bring their A-game against Northwestern. While I still think Ohio State wins, Northwestern can hang around with Ohio State. Northwestern has shown they typically play up to their level of competition. The Wildcats lost by three to Michigan and 10 points against Notre Dame. Northwestern defeated Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Iowa and Minnesota this season.
Northwestern head coach Pat Fitzgerald and his staff have been preparing for this game since they clinched their division weeks ago. According to Eleven Warriors, Fitzgerald watched tape on both Michigan and Ohio State before the matchup became locked in. Meanwhile, Ohio State likely had all hands on deck for their matchup against Michigan.
Normally coaches play coy when talking about looking ahead to a game, but Fitzgerald openly admitted his staff was working on a Big Ten title game plan before they took the field against Illinois in the regular season finale.
“I really limited what I allowed our coordinators to do this week against Illinois,” Fitzgerald explained per Eleven Warriors. “I took most of our starters out pretty early on offense, and defensively we were very vanilla and didn't play some guys that could've played.”
Northwestern Has Thrived as an Underdog Against the Spread
Ohio State is just 5-7 against the spread this season and 4-7 when the Buckeyes are favored. Northwestern has struggled against the spread when they are the favorite, but have thrived in the underdog role going nearly perfect in Vegas. Northwestern is 5-0-1 against the spread as an underdog.
Northwestern has a top 30 ranked defense allowing 21.7 points per game this season. The Buckeyes' defense is down the list at 57th allowing 25.8 points per game. Where the Wildcats really struggle is on offense as they are ranked 108th with just 23.7 points per game. For comparison, Ohio State averages 43.3 points per game.
Northwestern has to hope for a low-scoring affair to have a chance against Ohio State. Meyer noted his staff was not watching tape on the Wildcats until recently and believes his staff is at a bit of a disadvantage when it comes to preparation.
"That's [early preparation] a huge advantage," Meyer told the Dayton Daily News. "It is. I mean, I can assure you, we weren't watching anything other than our rival. I think that's an advantage. It certainly is...That's what we're trying to do right now; yeah, sure. I think the biggest thing is we just played a very physical game and our goal -- I think what our offensive linemen have done, they played 95 plays against Michigan State, very rugged defense. They went and played 105 plays against Maryland where the 105th play was as important as the 22nd. And they just went against the No. 1 defense in America, a bunch of rugged players."
My prediction is this turns into an ugly game where the Buckeyes are eventually victorious. Take Northwestern to cover the two-touchdown spread and watch them keep it close.
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College Football Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread Week 14