College Football Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread Week 14

No. 1 UCF Covers -3 Spread vs. Memphis in AAC Championship

There's are a couple reasons this spread is closer than many would expect it to be. There are questions about how UCF will perform without star quarterback McKenzie Milton. Secondly, UCF played its worst game of the last two years earlier this season in their narrow one-point victory over the Tigers.

Despite the obstacles, UCF has a good chance to win this game convincingly. While Milton is one of the best quarterbacks in the country, he is not the only player that makes the Knights' offense go. UCF has speed all over the field and these offensive weapons will help backup Darriel Mack Jr. in his transition as the new starter.

Mack is a capable quarterback who chose UCF over programs like West Virginia, Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh. Like Milton, Mack is a dual-threat player who does his best work on the run. Mack has experience filling in for Milton as he started in UCF's game against East Carolina. UCF head coach Josh Heupel's decision to hold Milton out against ECU could turn out to pay dividends as it allowed Mack to get game experience.

---

UCF Has a Solid Backup Quarterback in Darriel Mack Jr.

After coming in for Milton against South Florida, Mack helped UCF build a big lead in the season finale. Heupel noted UCF is still confident heading into the matchup against Memphis with Mack under center.

"D.J. threw the ball really well the other night," Heupel told UCFSports.com. "We've got to make some plays. 10 other guys around him have to play at a high level. Not anything extraordinary. Play at their best. D.J. has got to make a couple throws that he can make. We have complete confidence in him as a passer. Have complete confidence in him in what we're doing offensively. Our playbook is wide open. We don't change anything that we're doing. The plays we ran with him the other night were the same things we had in the game plan for McKenzie."

UCF is known for their prolific passing attack, but the Knights also have one of the best rushing attacks in college football. UCF puts up close to 270 rushing yards per games, which ranks them No. 6 in the country. UCF may scale back their passing under Mack, but their rushing attack is still intact.

On the Memphis side, the Tigers are just 2-3 on the road this season. Memphis' defense ranks 81st as the Tigers are allowing 29.5 points per game. Even without Milton, UCF's offense should be able to put up points at home against Memphis.

The one thing UCF should be concerned about is Memphis' rushing attack. The Knights allowed 281 rushing yards during their first matchup this season.

The impact of Milton will turn this game one of two ways for UCF. Either there will be a letdown against Memphis after losing their quarterback, or the Knights will use the tough circumstances as motivation in front of a home crowd. If there was going to be a letdown, it likely would have happened against USF after witnessing such a gruesome injury to the leader of the team. My sense is UCF will be ready to play, and Heupel will dial up a game plan that utilizes Mack's strengths.

UCF is 8-3 against the spread this season and 5-2 at home. Memphis is just 2-3 against the spread on the road. Look for UCF to cover the spread on their way to their second consecutive undefeated season.

0 Comments