We enter the final week of college football's regular season with several conference championships playing a key factor in finalizing the College Football Playoff teams. We have you covered with our top picks against the spread highlighting the best bets among the conference title games.
What factors should you consider for conference championship week as you make your college football picks? Each team has given us a season's worth of data. For the favorites, look at how they have played against lesser competition. Do they play down to their opponent? For the underdogs, have they proven they can hang with teams that have been deemed a more a talented squad? How a team has done against the spread this season is another data point to consider.
No. 1 Alabama takes on No. 4 Georgia in an SEC title game that is also a rematch of the national championship game. Georgia will likely make the College Football Playoff with a victory, while a loss almost assuredly eliminates the Bulldogs from contention. An Alabama loss still likely keeps the Crimson Tide in the playoff picture, making it much more difficult for the Big Ten or Big 12 champion to make it in.
No. 5 Oklahoma takes on No. 14 Texas as the Longhorns look to play spoiler to their rival's title hopes. The Sooners need to not only win but look good doing it as they try to make a great final impression for the selection committee.
The Mountain West & AAC Championship Games Will Likely Determine Which Group of Five Team Makes a New Year's Six Bowl Game
No. 22 Boise State squares off with No. 25 Fresno State for the Mountain West title. From a betting perspective, it is a matchup I would stay away from. The Broncos got the win the first time these two teams played, but the teams are evenly matched. It is hard to beat the same school twice in one season, especially when the games are close together. If pressed, I would take Boise State to cover, but there are other games that offer more stability.
No. 8 UCF will face Memphis without star quarterback McKenzie Milton. The narrow Vegas line reflects the Knights starting backup Darriel Mack Jr. in the conference title game, but UCF can secure a second straight New Year's Six game with a win over the Tigers. UCF would need a bit of chaos to be in the College Football Playoff discussion.
No. 11 Washington takes on No. 17 Utah on Friday night to get the conference championship games started. Washington is favored by 5.5 points, but it would be a game I stay away from. The Pac-12 has been the most unpredictable conference this year, and either of these teams could wind up victorious.
The Saturday night games will feature two heavy favorites in Clemson and Ohio State. Clemson will take on Pitt and are nearly favored by four touchdowns. Things are a bit closer for Ohio State-Northwestern, but the Buckeyes are still favored by two touchdowns.
If you have questions about particular college football matchups, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @JonDAdams. All the point spreads are courtesy of OddsShark and are subject to change. Click the next arrow to see my college football picks against the spread for Week 14.
No. 5 Texas Covers +7.5 Spread vs. Oklahoma in Big 12 Championship
Let's not overthink this, Texas is catching more than seven points against an Oklahoma team they defeated earlier this season. While I don't think the Longhorns will pull off the season sweep, I do expect this rivalry matchup to come down to the wire. Neither Texas or Oklahoma have been particularly strong in Vegas this season.
Oklahoma is a dismal 4-7-1 against the spread, while Texas is slightly better at 5-6-1. However, the Longhorns are 2-0-1 as an underdog, which they will be on Saturday.
The Sooners have the best offense in the country, but the problem is they cannot stop anybody. Oklahoma allowed quarterback Sam Ehlinger to have nearly 400 total yards in their first matchup. Oklahoma's three turnovers cost them the initial game against Texas.
Texas head coach Tom Herman believes the Longhorns are facing the same Oklahoma squad they saw earlier this season.
"...And what a special player the quarterback is and what a special player he is and the numbers he has, (but) you’ve got to stop the run," Herman told the Austin American-Statesman. "The last five or six games, at least 290 yards rushing in each of those games, so we’ve got to stop the run and we obviously have to contain him, which means we’ve got to play well on the perimeter then, too, because he can really throw it. But no, they haven’t gotten better. They were doing all this stuff before they played us, too. It’s remarkable to watch them.”
Texas Is the Only Team to Beat Oklahoma This Season
Oklahoma has a chance to make the College Football Playoff, while Texas has an opportunity to play spoiler for their rival. A win would also put the Longhorns in the conversation for a New Year's Six game.
For all of Texas' flaws, they have done the one thing no one else on Oklahoma's schedule accomplished which is to beat the Sooners. Texas will find it difficult to make the same thing happen twice, but I would be surprised if this matchup does not come down to the final minutes.
With the Sooners in close contention with the Buckeyes and Bulldogs for potentially the final playoff spot, Oklahoma needs to not only beat Texas but do it convincingly to try to impress the committee. Oklahoma has the offense to do just that, but you have to wonder if this will lead to the Sooners pressing a bit. We saw in their first meeting with Texas that turnovers were a major factor.
Look for Oklahoma to get the win, but not as comfortably as Sooners fans may want as Texas covers the spread.
No. 4 Northwestern Covers +14 Spread vs. Ohio State in Big Ten Championship
Consider these results from some of Ohio State's games this season: Ohio State 20 Purdue 49, Ohio State 36 Nebraska 31 and Ohio State 52 Maryland 51. The Buckeyes have shown a propensity for underperforming against inferior opponents. Even though this is the Big Ten title game, this could be a letdown spot for the Buckeyes after a massive rivalry win last week.
I have some skepticism that Ohio State is going to bring their A-game against Northwestern. While I still think Ohio State wins, Northwestern can hang around with Ohio State. Northwestern has shown they typically play up to their level of competition. The Wildcats lost by three to Michigan and 10 points against Notre Dame. Northwestern defeated Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Iowa and Minnesota this season.
Northwestern head coach Pat Fitzgerald and his staff have been preparing for this game since they clinched their division weeks ago. According to Eleven Warriors, Fitzgerald watched tape on both Michigan and Ohio State before the matchup became locked in. Meanwhile, Ohio State likely had all hands on deck for their matchup against Michigan.
Normally coaches play coy when talking about looking ahead to a game, but Fitzgerald openly admitted his staff was working on a Big Ten title game plan before they took the field against Illinois in the regular season finale.
“I really limited what I allowed our coordinators to do this week against Illinois,” Fitzgerald explained per Eleven Warriors. “I took most of our starters out pretty early on offense, and defensively we were very vanilla and didn't play some guys that could've played.”
Northwestern Has Thrived as an Underdog Against the Spread
Ohio State is just 5-7 against the spread this season and 4-7 when the Buckeyes are favored. Northwestern has struggled against the spread when they are the favorite, but have thrived in the underdog role going nearly perfect in Vegas. Northwestern is 5-0-1 against the spread as an underdog.
Northwestern has a top 30 ranked defense allowing 21.7 points per game this season. The Buckeyes' defense is down the list at 57th allowing 25.8 points per game. Where the Wildcats really struggle is on offense as they are ranked 108th with just 23.7 points per game. For comparison, Ohio State averages 43.3 points per game.
Northwestern has to hope for a low-scoring affair to have a chance against Ohio State. Meyer noted his staff was not watching tape on the Wildcats until recently and believes his staff is at a bit of a disadvantage when it comes to preparation.
"That's [early preparation] a huge advantage," Meyer told the Dayton Daily News. "It is. I mean, I can assure you, we weren't watching anything other than our rival. I think that's an advantage. It certainly is...That's what we're trying to do right now; yeah, sure. I think the biggest thing is we just played a very physical game and our goal -- I think what our offensive linemen have done, they played 95 plays against Michigan State, very rugged defense. They went and played 105 plays against Maryland where the 105th play was as important as the 22nd. And they just went against the No. 1 defense in America, a bunch of rugged players."
My prediction is this turns into an ugly game where the Buckeyes are eventually victorious. Take Northwestern to cover the two-touchdown spread and watch them keep it close.
No. 3 Pitt Covers +26.5 Spread vs. Clemson in ACC Championship
Everyone is handing Clemson the ACC title, but 26 points is a lot to spot somebody with a conference championship on the line. Pitt has the capabilities to ugly-up this matchup against Clemson. While the Panthers laid an egg against the Hurricanes, Clemson is going to get their best shot on Saturday.
Overall, this is a much better Pitt team than we saw earlier in the season. The Panthers showed that when they hung with Notre Dame. Pittsburgh has wins over Syracuse, Duke, Virginia and Virginia Tech. While Pitt took advantage of playing in a weak ACC Coastal division, they are capable of hanging with Clemson for a few quarters before the Tigers open things up.
The strength of Pitt's offense is running back Qadree Ollison. Quarterback Kenny Pickett has also played better during the second half of the season. Pitt's head coach Pat Narduzzi believes his team will relish the role of underdog and thinks some of his team was already looking ahead to Clemson when they played Miami.
“The underdog, I mean, I think our kids will know they’re the underdog,” Narduzzi told Trib Live. “I don’t think I have to tell them. If you turn any TV station on, turn on ESPN, they’ll find out by the time we get probably (to) Wednesday that they’re the underdog. I won’t really have to play that role up. I think they’ll have figured that out...I’m not so sure some of our kids weren’t already looking forward to (the championship game) already. So I don’t think we’ll have much trouble trying to get them ready for the game. I think they’ve looked forward to it for a week, maybe too much.”
Clemson Has Struggled This Season Against the Spread
Clemson is just 6-6 against the spread this season, while Pittsburgh is 8-4. The Panthers have gone an impressive 5-3 against the spread as an underdog. Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney spoke about what his team expects against Pitt.
"Pittsburgh is a tough, physical football team," Swinney explained to 247 Sports. "That’s just who they are. Offensively they’re gonna be a 21-personnel team, 11-personnel, some 20, and they come right at ya. It’s three runs to every pass and you’ve got to stop it. They got two backs right at 1,000. No. 30 and 22, great players. Tough, hard-nosed guys. They have really done a nice job incorporating their receivers into the run game with how they block and the play-action game. A bunch of formations, bunch of shifts, lot of motioning so it really challenges you to be sound in your gaps, be disciplined, and have your eyes on the right things."
Clemson likely pulls away in the second half, but I like Pittsburgh to hang around early which will allow them to cover the massive spread.
No. 2 Georgia Covers +13 Spread vs. Alabama in SEC Championship
It is no surprise Alabama is a heavy favorite against Georgia in the SEC title game. Once you dig deeper there are reasons to think this game will be closer than many expect.
While this will be the furthest thing from Nick Saban's mindset, Alabama is likely going to make the College Football Playoff regardless of the outcome of this matchup. Georgia needs to win the game to have a good chance to make the postseason.
While there are a few different players on both teams compared to last season, Alabama needed a comeback overtime victory to beat Georgia in the national championship game. The Bulldogs defense will have to contend with a much more potent group of Crimson Tide wide receivers in this matchup. Georgia will also have to face Tua Tagovailoa for all four quarters this time around, not just the second half.
According to OddsShark, this marks the first game this season Georgia has entered as an underdog. The Bulldogs are a respectable 7-5 against the spread, while Alabama is 8-4. Heading into the contest, Saban called this game the most challenging of the year.
“I think the SEC is a very good league, for the team to go undefeated is quite an accomplishment,” Saban explained to Dawg Nation. “But it really doesn’t mean anything if we can’t take advantage of the opportunity that we have next week in the SEC Championship Game, and obviously Georgia is a very, very good team...They’ve got some really impressive wins, (and) they’re ranked very highly in a lot of categories, and this will be the most challenging game that we have all year.”
Georgia Has Looked Like a Different Team Since Their Loss to LSU
Since losing to LSU, Georgia has won each of their last five games by 17 or more points. Bulldogs quarterback Jake Fromm appears to be more confident as well. Fromm originally committed to Alabama before flipping to Georgia. The Bulldogs quarterback had a solid outing in the title game against Bama a year ago.
Georgia head coach Kirby Smart believes Fromm will be even more prepared this year since he is closing in on the end of his second college season.
“But this year is a different year,” Smart explained to WSBTV. “The fact that he’s played (12 games) has more to do with it than who we played. The fact he’s played and gotten experience, that he’s gone against our defense all spring, all fall. … That’s more valuable than just playing Alabama. But the fact that he played against them last year, sometimes that helps.”
This is not a money line situation where I think Georgia will win outright, but I do think the Bulldogs will hang close with Alabama. Since their loss to LSU, Georgia has flown under the radar, but they are one of the most complete teams in college football. Look for a close SEC championship in Atlanta as we see Georgia-Alabama round two as Georgia covers the big spread.
No. 1 UCF Covers -3 Spread vs. Memphis in AAC Championship
There's are a couple reasons this spread is closer than many would expect it to be. There are questions about how UCF will perform without star quarterback McKenzie Milton. Secondly, UCF played its worst game of the last two years earlier this season in their narrow one-point victory over the Tigers.
Despite the obstacles, UCF has a good chance to win this game convincingly. While Milton is one of the best quarterbacks in the country, he is not the only player that makes the Knights' offense go. UCF has speed all over the field and these offensive weapons will help backup Darriel Mack Jr. in his transition as the new starter.
Mack is a capable quarterback who chose UCF over programs like West Virginia, Virginia Tech and Pittsburgh. Like Milton, Mack is a dual-threat player who does his best work on the run. Mack has experience filling in for Milton as he started in UCF's game against East Carolina. UCF head coach Josh Heupel's decision to hold Milton out against ECU could turn out to pay dividends as it allowed Mack to get game experience.
UCF Has a Solid Backup Quarterback in Darriel Mack Jr.
After coming in for Milton against South Florida, Mack helped UCF build a big lead in the season finale. Heupel noted UCF is still confident heading into the matchup against Memphis with Mack under center.
"D.J. threw the ball really well the other night," Heupel told UCFSports.com. "We've got to make some plays. 10 other guys around him have to play at a high level. Not anything extraordinary. Play at their best. D.J. has got to make a couple throws that he can make. We have complete confidence in him as a passer. Have complete confidence in him in what we're doing offensively. Our playbook is wide open. We don't change anything that we're doing. The plays we ran with him the other night were the same things we had in the game plan for McKenzie."
UCF is known for their prolific passing attack, but the Knights also have one of the best rushing attacks in college football. UCF puts up close to 270 rushing yards per games, which ranks them No. 6 in the country. UCF may scale back their passing under Mack, but their rushing attack is still intact.
On the Memphis side, the Tigers are just 2-3 on the road this season. Memphis' defense ranks 81st as the Tigers are allowing 29.5 points per game. Even without Milton, UCF's offense should be able to put up points at home against Memphis.
The one thing UCF should be concerned about is Memphis' rushing attack. The Knights allowed 281 rushing yards during their first matchup this season.
The impact of Milton will turn this game one of two ways for UCF. Either there will be a letdown against Memphis after losing their quarterback, or the Knights will use the tough circumstances as motivation in front of a home crowd. If there was going to be a letdown, it likely would have happened against USF after witnessing such a gruesome injury to the leader of the team. My sense is UCF will be ready to play, and Heupel will dial up a game plan that utilizes Mack's strengths.
UCF is 8-3 against the spread this season and 5-2 at home. Memphis is just 2-3 against the spread on the road. Look for UCF to cover the spread on their way to their second consecutive undefeated season.
College Football Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread Week 14