NFL fans are given a battle of elite quarterbacks on Sunday Night Football in Week 9. Fortunately, that also means there'll be some big fantasy football options for the game between the Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots. The day slate of games features plenty of worthwhile matchups, but it should be the nightcap which makes the headlines.
An increasingly popular way to get in on the action for primetime games is with showdown fantasy options. DraftKings is once again offering a few big games in honor of the duel between Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. This begins with the always-popular $10 option with $888,888 guaranteed and $200,000 to first place.
Ahead of the big Sunday night game, I'm going to take a look at the showdown slate by offering multiple optimal lineups. This will include one optimal lineup, a 150-max option (high ceiling, boom-or-bust) and a single-entry/cash lineup (high floor). With showdown games being different than normal games, I'll first evaluate the top captain options and names to target in that spot as well.
But before we dive into the actual lineups and captain breakdown, here's a look at showdown rules and how the games work.
– Six total players (one captain, five flex players)
– Captain selection costs 1.5 times standard salary but scores 1.5 times the standard points
– Can choose from any position (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, DST)
– $50,000 salary cap
– You can use more than one quarterback
There's quite a bit to consider when building these lineups, and since captains can be such a big differentiator, some time needs to be spent on evaluating that prior to constructing lineups. The 1.5x points you earn there makes it a key spot, but deciding between spending up or saving money in that position will be a key topic.
First, let's start off with the top captain choices for the Packers vs. Patriots matchup and then roll into the lineups.
Favorite Captains for Packers vs. Patriots
These are the main players I'll look to build lineups around in the captain spot on DraftKings (with captain pricing of 1.5x more). It's worth noting that I will use others aside from these as well, but much of it comes down to how the construction of lineups works out.
– Aaron Rodgers ($17,400)
– Tom Brady ($17,100)
– Julian Edelman ($13,200)
– Josh Gordon ($11,100)
– Jimmy Graham ($9,000)
– Aaron Jones ($8,100)
Favorite expensive captains: Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers
Top value-saving captain: Aaron Jones
The upside of both Rodgers and Brady in this spot makes it tough to not build multiple lineups which feature them paired up. Unfortunately, using both players together with one in the captain spot makes building the rest of your lineup somewhat tough. With that said, I would recommend doing it once or twice if entering multiple lineups.
A key with choosing captains is trying to not only use it as a way to maximize points but also to be somewhat different. In turn, most people are going to use a mid-priced option to fit Brady/Rodgers, so finding a way to get one in the captain spot could be ideal for 150-max games on this slate.
The Patriots are worse statistically against quarterbacks this year, but Brady has been on fire at home as of late (more on that later). In turn, I'm fine using either quarterback in the top spot this week. There are enough low-priced options to make it so that you can fit one of the expensive names as a captain on Sunday.
Let's break down the top optimal lineup for this showdown slate first and then move to the 150-max and single entry lineups.
Optimal Lineup
– CAPTAIN: Aaron Jones ($8,100)
– Aaron Rodgers ($11,600)
– Tom Brady ($11,400)
– Julian Edelman ($8,800)
– Jimmy Graham ($6,000)
– Stephen Gostkowski ($3,400)
A lot of people aren't on board with the whole "using kickers in showdown" argument, but I'm more than willing to get behind it. If a kicker who's priced $3,400 scores double-digit DraftKings points (which Stephen Gostkowski has in two of the last three), it's a great return on investment. There are going to be plenty of points in this game and likely quite a few field goal attempts as well. There's a good chance I'll have more ownership in Gostkowski than most will.
Aaron Jones is a name I have circled and I'm hopeful other players don't fully recognize what seems to be happening in Green Bay. Obviously, we know about the trade which sent Ty Montgomery out of town, but Week 7 brought a big change to the team's offense. Jones totaled a season-high with 62 percent of the offensive snaps (per Football Outsiders) as well as his most touches (14) in a single game.
Jones' potential has always been there and it seems the Packers may finally be willing to let the 23-year-old back loose. He totaled 86 yards on 12 carries last game and has averaged at least 5.1 yards per carry in each of the five games he's played in this season. While the Patriots have allowed 675 rushing yards on 159 carries with two touchdowns this season, they've given up the second-most receiving yards to the position at 508 and three scores. It's a great spot for Jones on Sunday night.
As far as the Packers passing attack goes, I opted to pair Aaron Rodgers with Jimmy Graham in this lineup for a few reasons. The matchups of both are solid, considering the Patriots have allowed 17 touchdowns and 2,312 passing yards to opposing quarterbacks. But they're also tied for most touchdowns allowed to tight ends with five, along with 505 receiving yards.
The duo of Rodgers and Graham should have no issue linking up, especially if Davante Adams winds up getting shadowed by Stephon Gilmore. This has the makings of a potential two-touchdown performance from Graham, especially if Rodgers is able to take advantage of the mismatch.
Obviously, the Patriots side deserves some major love on their home field against a very beatable Packers defense. I was able to get Tom Brady in this lineup as well, pairing him with a safe option who also has somewhat of a high ceiling in Julian Edelman. The wideout has either scored or topped 100 receiving yards in each of the past three games and I wouldn't be surprised to see both happen this week.
As far as Brady goes, he's essentially been a different quarterback at home compared to on the road. Per StatMuse, the Patriots quarterback has completed 69.9 percent of his passes at home while throwing for an average of 308 yards with 10 touchdowns in four games. For good measure, he also has two rushing scores.
Let's break down the 150-max line now, which features players with higher ceilings and one or two who may have lower ownership as well.
150-Max Entry Lineup
– CAPTAIN: Tom Brady ($17,100)
– Aaron Rodgers ($11,600)
– Josh Gordon ($7,400)
– Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($5,800)
– Aaron Jones ($5,400)
– Jamaal Williams ($2,000)
As you can see, I plan on having a lot of ownership in Aaron Jones this week. I do expect most to go mid-range at captain, so for the 150-max game, I'm opting to pay up for Tom Brady in an attempt to be somewhat different. Obviously, Brady's upside is tremendous and as previously stated, he's crushed at home this season, so I think it's a safe floor and high ceiling situation.
The same can be said about Jones unless Mike McCarthy just decides he hates fantasy football and opts to create one big headache. But the real differentiator here is choosing to roll out Jones with Jamaal Williams. While Williams did see a decline in workload last week, he stole a touchdown from Jones and there are going to be enough points in this game to go around.
I'm not incredibly high on Williams, but at $2,000 and with Ty Montgomery no longer in the mix, he's not going to just completely disappear. There's also a good chance he takes at least a bit of the passing work with Ty Mont now long gone. Williams has 17 targets this season and while he's yet to find the end zone, we know the Patriots struggle mightily against pass-catching backs.
While the Packers No. 2 running back in the same lineup with his backfield mate is a hot-button topic by itself, Josh Gordon is in an interesting spot. The Packers have allowed just 76 receptions for 1,066 yards to opposing wideouts, but have given up 12 touchdowns. That bodes well for Gordon who could see a few red zone targets and obviously has big-play ability. I think we're going to see a true breakout game from the former Cleveland Browns receiver this week.
I opted to go with Marquez Valdes-Scantling over Randall Cobb and I believe he'll be the lesser-owned player of the two. Although Valdes-Scantling has out-produced Cobb as of late and topped 12.5 DraftKings points in each of the last three games, Cobb is the more popular name. With Geronimo Allison ruled out, the rookie fifth-round pick should be able to take advantage of a Patriots secondary which has struggled at times this season.
If Adams does wind up seeing the full Gilmore treatment, he's still going to get targets, but it'll also open MVS up for more work. It's worth noting that even in Week 8 with Allison, Cobb and Adams all active, Valdes-Scantling still played the second-most offensive snaps of any wideout. Per Football Outsiders, his 31 snaps trailed only the 40 of Adams.
Next up is somewhat of a "safer" lineup which is good for single entry tournaments and cash games.
Single Entry/Cash Lineup
– CAPTAIN: Aaron Jones ($8,100)
– Tom Brady ($11,400)
– James White ($9,600)
– Julian Edelman ($8,800)
– Jimmy Graham ($6,000)
– Randall Cobb ($5,600)
The Aaron Jones run continues. I'm obviously not going to have the Packers running back in every lineup, but he'll likely be in around 75-80 percent of my builds. The situation and potential workload is simply too appealing. He's going to be a chalky play on this slate but I'm willing to deal with it and make my lineups different in other ways for the most part.
I'm confident in pairing Tom Brady and Julian Edelman again here. Edelman has seen 34 targets in four games since returning from suspension and there's no reason to think that's going to change. The Patriots offense is a whole lot better when the talented receiver is involved often and Brady is well aware of that.
James White is a name I haven't mentioned yet, and while the status of Sony Michel won't be known until just prior to game time, it won't change my outlook on either player. For Michel, I'm fine using him in some bigger tournaments as his ownership could be low due to injury. On the opposite side, we know what we're getting from White and I think he's an all-around strong play. I haven't used White but once in these builds, but he'll be in probably 35-45 percent of my lineups.
The Packers defense has allowed just 29 receptions for 258 yards and one score through the air to running backs. Obviously, White is a different breed of pass-catching back than most, though, so I expect him to have no problem finding success.
Although I spoke highly about Valdes-Scantling, I do believe Randall Cobb is the safer play of the two. He's going to see his fair share of work with Allison out, but I just think the rookie has a higher ceiling while Cobb likely has the better floor. Cobb's rapport with Aaron Rodgers is undeniable and I feel good about the receiver's spot against the Patriots.
I already touched briefly on how much New England struggles against tight ends, and aside from last week's dud from Jimmy Graham, he had been pretty reliable in the weeks prior. This is a matchup for a talented tight end against a defense who's allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to the position, per ESPN. It's hard not to like Graham this week and he should have no problem topping 15-18 DraftKings points.
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DraftKings Picks & Optimal Lineups for Packers vs. Patriots Showdown