Colts Playoff Chances: Updated Outlook After Week 16 Win

Andrew Luck

Getty Indianapolis Colts QB Andrew Luck

The Indianapolis Colts begin their final push for a playoff berth on Sunday in Week 16 with a game against the New York Giants. While the attention is fully on the outcome of their own game, the Colts also need to get some help from other teams in order to navigate their way in the postseason. Although there are a few things working in their favor, there’s still ground to be made up.

Andrew Luck and company have been excellent as of late, winning seven of their last eight games, but a 1-5 start to the year put them in a tough spot. With the Giants set to be their first roadblock in the final two games when it comes to their playoff hopes, the results Saturday didn’t do the Colts any favors either.

After wins by both the Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens, the Colts now have to win to keep pace in the AFC. Let’s take a look a the updated playoff standings and the team’s chances heading into Sunday’s action.

*Note: Updated odds/chances for playoffs updated below.

AFC Playoff Standings

1. Kansas City Chiefs 11 3 0
2. New England Patriots 10 5 0
3. Houston Texans 10 5 0
4. Baltimore Ravens 9 6 0
5. L.A. Chargers 11 4 0
6. Indianapolis Colts 9 6 0
7. Tennessee Titans 9 6 0
8. Pittsburgh Steelers 8 6 1

The good news is that the Indianapolis Colts currently hold the tiebreaker over the Titans in the AFC Wild Card race. In turn, even a Week 16 loss wouldn’t completely end Indy’s playoff hopes, but they would take a hit. Currently, the Colts find themselves looking up at the Ravens and Titans but ahead of the only other team still in the mix (technically) in the Miami Dolphins.

On the AFC side, the focus for essentially each team outside of the top-five spots in the conference is on that sixth and final Wild Card spot. The only exception is the AFC North, which remains up in the air, as the rest of the divisions would require top teams imploding for the outlook to change.

The Colts are still longshots to make the postseason, especially after the recent results, so we’ll lay out their odds next.

Colts’ Playoff Chances

Even with the tiebreaker over the Titans, a Week 17 matchup between the two teams could make things incredibly interesting. But before we get there, the Colts need to get the job done against the Giants.

According to Playoff Status, prior to Week 16, the Colts had a 72 percent chance to wind up on the outside looking in at the playoffs when the season ends. Their best outlook before their win over the Giants came with a 26 percent chance to finish in the No. 6 spot. They also still had a one percent chance (or worse) to win the division and receive a seed between Nos. 2-4.

Update: After defeating the Giants, the Colts now hold a 26 percent chance of finishing with the No. 6 Wild Card spot. Along with that comes a 17 percent chance to win the division and earn either the No. 3 or 4 seed (would need a Texans loss), per Playoff Status.

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