We are in the thick of the fantasy football playoffs, which can seem like a completely different season than when the NFL started earlier this fall. We're here to get you ready for the postseason with our Week 15 edition of Start 'Em, Sit 'Em.
Who would have thought at the beginning of the season that Derrick Henry would have such a major impact on who eventually wins fantasy football titles all over the country. Henry notched 238 yards and four touchdowns against the Jaguars in Week 14. To put into context just how surprising this performance was, Henry's Week 14 outing accounted for more than 33 percent of his total rushing yards this season.
Looking at fantasy playoff matchups reveals just how important it is to play the waiver wire until the very end. Players like Jaylen Samuels and Jeff Wilson Jr. began the fantasy season as afterthoughts. Yet, these are the kind of players that end up impacting the playoffs in a major way based on injuries and circumstances.
Curtis Samuel Is Worth a Waiver Wire Pickup
If you are looking for a waiver wire player for this week, Panthers wide receiver Curtis Samuel could be your man. CBS Sports' Jamey Eisenberg explained why Samuel is worth taking a flyer on for Week 15.
"Samuel is playing well of late, and he should be considered a high-end No. 3 Fantasy receiver in Week 15 against the Saints," Eisenberg explained. "He's scored at least 11 PPR points in four games in a row, but his best performances have come in the past two games against Tampa Bay and Cleveland. In those two outings, he has 10 catches for 168 yards on 19 targets, emerging as Carolina's most productive receiver in that span. This week, he's taking on a Saints defense that allows the most fantasy points to opposing receivers, and Samuel should once again be considered a sleeper with upside."
The Eagles-Rams & Chargers-Chiefs Highlight Offensive Friendly Games in Week 15
According to OddsShark, the Rams and Eagles matchup is expected to be the highest-scoring game of Week 15 with a point total of 53.5. The Chargers-Chiefs and Saints-Panthers are the only other games with point totals over 50 points. Patrick Mahomes spoke about what its like to prepare for a big AFC West showdown on a short week.
“You really just have to come into work every single day even more," Mahomes said per the Chiefs website. "[Monday], you’re here from about nine to nine, just to make sure that you get two days’ worth of film and game-planning in. It’s the same thing [on Tuesday]. You want to make sure you’re just as prepared as you would be for a Sunday game...The Chargers are a good team – a team that’s on a hot streak right now – and you’re basically playing for the AFC West title. You have to go out there and try to get yourself ready to go - physically and mentally - to win a football game.”
On the other end of the spectrum, the Redskins-Jaguars matchup has the lowest over-under at 36 points which makes sense given the uncertainty both teams have at quarterback. The Lions-Bills have a point total of 38. These may be games to avoid when you are making your lineup decisions.
Feel free to reach out on Twitter @JonDAdams with your fantasy football questions as you prepare for your fantasy playoffs. Click the next arrow to see my fantasy football predictions for Week 15.
Start: TE Ian Thomas vs. Saints
Sit: TE Jimmy Graham vs. Bears
The Panthers received bad news a few weeks ago when Greg Olsen was ruled out for the season. The good news is rookie tight end Ian Thomas has performed well in his absence. Thomas is coming off a solid Week 14 outing, nine receptions for 77 yards against the Browns. The tight end had five receptions for 46 yards in Week 13.
Thomas had a solid senior season at Indiana notching 25 receptions for 376 yards and five touchdowns.
This week, Thomas gets a great matchup against the Saints who give up the fifth-most passing yards in the NFL at 271.1 yards per game. Cam Newton already has a lot of confidence in Thomas.
"He's good," Newton told 247 Sports. "He's real good. But he's still young and still learning certain things. I think he's more comfortable with the plays that's given. And it was good for him to kind of play sparingly and just learn behind Greg more ... Just to see where he's come from and how fast he's playing really is a (tribute) to his mentality and where he knows where he has to be."
Panthers head coach Ron Rivera is already seeing improvement in Thomas' play.
“He’s had a chance to learn and reflect, and you can see the improvement," Rivera said per Panthers.com.
Jimmy Graham Is Not Who We Thought He Was
We always encourage fantasy owners to start their studs in the playoffs, but Jimmy Graham is only a stud based on name recognition. Graham has not been able to post consistent fantasy numbers since arriving in Green Bay and has been a disappointment based on the massive preseason expectations.
Graham had just two receptions for 13 yards against a bad Falcons defense in Week 14. This week, Graham gets a difficult matchup against a top-10 Bears defense. Despite the coaching change, Aaron Rodgers believes the Packers still have a chance at the playoffs.
“The interesting thing is, we didn’t talk about it at all," Rodgers told USA Today. "I don’t know if guys were resigned to not thinking that there’s a chance, or everything that was going on, nobody even mentioned it. I mentioned it briefly before the game."
Graham's fantasy outlook for 2019 could improve depending on the Packers coaching change. As of now, Graham is a touchdown-dependent fantasy tight end, which is not the type of player you want to start in your playoff matchup. We will see if the Packers utilize the tight end more next season when their new offense is installed.
Start: QB Philip Rivers at Chiefs
Sit: QB Jameis Winston at Ravens
Philip Rivers and Drew Brees must be living right because both veteran quarterbacks have played as good as they ever have this season. Rivers is coming off a bit of a down week throwing for just 220 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals. Expect Rivers to bounce back this week against the Chiefs in a Thursday Night Football showdown.
The last time Rivers played the Chiefs he threw for 424 yards and three touchdowns. Fantasy owners are hoping for more of the same in Week 15. The Chiefs defense allows the most passing yards of any team in the NFL. Some of this is tied to how fast their offense scores, but it helps the opposing team put up fantasy points either way.
When the Chargers moved to Los Angeles, Rivers opted to remain in San Diego. It looks like those long commutes where he watches game film are paying off for the Chargers quarterback.
“My two biggest things were my family time and my preparation and what I owe this football team,” Rivers explained to the San Diego Tribune. “I was not going to sacrifice either of them in any big proportion. I can look at all the pluses and minuses and say, ‘OK. This does it.’ This allows me to get home in the 6 to 7 hour, which is when I got home the last 11 years, and it allows me to watch all or more of the film I watched before...I don’t want it to be, ‘He’s stuck in a car all day, maybe that’s why he struggled,’Come on.”
Look for a Thursday night shootout as the Chiefs and Chargers square off making Rivers a great Week 15 start.
Jameis Winston Completed Just 47 Percent of His Passes Against the Saints
Just when we thought Jameis Winston could be trusted with a plus matchup against the Saints secondary, he completed just 47 percent of his passes for 213 yards. Things get even worse for Winston this week as he faces a great Ravens defense.
Baltimore ranks No. 3 in the NFL against the pass allowing just 206.2 yards per game. Winston is not the quarterback to trust in your fantasy playoffs.
Winston was seen getting in a heated argument with teammates on the sideline in Week 14. According to the Tampa Bay Times, Winston's 47.2 completion percentage was his lowest number since his rookie season. Bucs head coach Dirk Koetter believes some of the problems stem from poor pass protection.
"Jameis got hit too many times today,'' Koetter explained to Tampa Bay Times. "You can't have your quarterback getting hit that many times, whether it's scrambling, running, four sacks. We can't get him hit that much.''
Winston took some of the blame after their loss to the Saints.
"We just didn't finish," Winston said per the Bucs website. "I've got to got to get the ball out of my hand and not take unnecessary sacks, but we didn't finish. We started fast because we came out with a chip on our shoulder; we've got to finish with a chip on our shoulder."
Keep Winston on your bench for Week 15 as you try to stay alive in the playoffs.
Start: RB Doug Martin at Bengals
Sit: RB Marlon Mack vs. Cowboys
Doug Martin has not put up the most efficient numbers, but he is getting red zone opportunities. Martin averaged just two yards per carry against the Steelers. The good news is Martin has scored a touchdown in three straight games.
This week, Martin faces a Bengals defense that is giving up the most rushing yards in the league at 148 yards per game.
Raiders head coach Jon Gruden has seen enough from Martin to know he wants him back on the team next season.
“He’s a good back," Gruden told NBC Sports Bay Area. "I think I’ll say it again and again, he’s a very good player. He’s been a great player in this league. He’s running it. He’s catching it. He picked up some blitz that were flushed. We did a lot of good things on the film that I look at. We’re proud of what we did against a very good defense. We thought Doug Martin played extremely well...Hopefully we can keep him around here. He’s a heck of a football player.”
We already know Martin is going to get red zone work, and now he has the opportunity to rack up yards against the worst rushing defense in the league.
Marlon Mack Faces the No. 3 Rushing Defense in the NFL
Marlon Mack has not been an amazing fantasy option this season, and things could get even worse in Week 15. Mack had 14 carries for 33 yards against the Texans and was saved by a touchdown. He had just 27 yards against the Jaguars in Week 13. Mack averaged 2.4 yards per carry in Week 14 and 3.4 yards per carry in Week 13.
Mack faces a Cowboys defense that is only giving up 86.8 yards per game, which puts them No. 3 among all NFL teams. Cowboys defensive coordinator Ron Marinelli stopped short of calling his unit elite but believes it is on the right track.
“We got to keep doing everything,” Marinelli explained to the Star-Telegram. “You are not elite until you can be consistently good every single week. You have to constantly build on it. You got to build on it. That’s our challenge each and every week. The challenge isn’t the opponent the challenge is us...Just sound and simple and we got better players. The talent has grown every year and the talent is playing hard. Sometimes you get extra talent and the talent doesn’t want to achieve like that. Our most talented players are probably our most highest achievers and that helps.”
As you look to win your fantasy championship, you can't rely on Mack in an especially bad matchup. The Colts will have trouble scoring against a Cowboys defense that has been on fire this season.
Start: WR Tyler Boyd at Raiders
Sit: WR Kenny Golladay at Bills
Tyler Boyd had a bit of an off week in Week 14 compared to what we have come to expect from the Bengals defacto WR1 since A.J. Green went down. Boyd finished with three receptions for 52 yards against the Chargers. This week, Boyd has a solid matchup against a Raiders team that is already preparing for 2019.Just two weeks ago, Boyd had six receptions for 97 yards against the Broncos. Boyd has had just one touchdown in the last five games, so he is due for a bit of positive regression.The Bengals may not be having the season that they wanted, but Boyd feels like the team is making progress.“I’m comfortable here,” Boyd said per CincyJungle.com. “I like it here. I like the guys that are here. I like the coaches. And I know we have the team to be great. We just have to keep everybody healthy and keep everybody rolling and just stay together. A lot of times there’s a lot of ups and downs, but if we can keep the train going straight, keep everything going straight, no stops or nothing, we can be unbeatable. We can be like the Chiefs in this league.”The Raiders are giving up 29.8 points per game, which is the second-most in the NFL. This could be the week where Boyd once again finds the end zone.
Kenny Golladay Has Struggled to Find Consistency
We thought the Golden Tate trade would open up an opportunity for Kenny Golladay to emerge as a fantasy WR2. It has not exactly worked out that way despite Golladay having a few great outings this season. The Lions wide receiver has struggled to find consistency, and you cannot put an inconsistent player in your lineup in the fantasy playoffs. Galladay had just two receptions for five yards last week against the Cardinals. He only had three receptions for 50 yards in Week 13. This week, Galladay faces a Bills defense that gives up the fewest passing yards in the NFL. Buffalo is only giving up 185.8 passing yards per game, which is bad news for a Lions offense that has struggled. Despite this season not going as planned, Lions head coach Matt Patricia believes Matthew Stafford is still the man that can lead Detroit to victories. “Certainly, [he] is a leader of our team from a standpoint of his work ethic, his toughness, his energy, the way he pushes, the way that he drives to go out and compete every single day,” Patricia told ESPN. “As a coach, you want players that are going to go out there and try to work hard to get better, and that’s what he does every single day. So again, he’s the guy that leads our team, leads our offense. And he’s put in some really tough situations, and he sticks them out and pushes through and just does a great job of continually going after it. For us, that’s what we’re banking on, and that’s what he gives us, and we’re pushing forward with that.”
Fantasy Football Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Week 15 Predictions