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Figuring out how NFL playoff matchups are determined requires a little math and an understanding of the tiebreaker process. Several playoff seeds could come down to NFL tiebreakers with multiple teams competing for the same spot.
What happens if two teams are tied for the same seed? Here are the tiebreaker procedures listed, in order, for two teams tied within the division per NFL.com.
Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss
Wild Card spots in both the AFC and NFC could be determined by tiebreakers. Here’s how NFL.com details the Wild Card tiebreakers for teams who play in different divisions.
Head-to-head, if applicable.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss.
Here’s a rundown of who holds the tiebreaker in a few of the key NFL playoff races.
Patriots & Texans Tiebreaker
One of the key races is for the top two seeds in the AFC. The Texans and Patriots head into Week 17 with identical 10-5 records. The Patriots own the head-to-head tiebreaker thanks to their win over the Texans in Week 1. Houston needs a win plus a New England loss to have a chance at the No. 2 seed.
Chiefs & Chargers Tiebreaker
The Chiefs and Chargers are both 11-4 with one week to go. The two teams split their matchups this season, but Kansas City currently owns the better division record by one game. The Chargers are hoping for a win over the Broncos combined with a Raiders upset of the Chiefs. The division winner will likely earn a top-two seed, while the second place team will play on the road during Wild Card Weekend.
Bears & Rams Tiebreaker
If the Bears win while the Rams lose, the two teams will be tied for No. 2 in the NFC. Chicago owns the tiebreaker thanks to their Week 14 win over Los Angeles. The Rams need a win or Bears loss to secure the No. 2 seed.
Patriots & Chiefs Tiebreaker
The Patriots need a victory and a Chiefs loss to have a chance at the No. 1 seed. Since the Patriots defeated the Chiefs earlier this season, New England owns the tiebreaker.
Division Winners Automatically Get the Top 4 Seeds in the AFC & NFC
Division winners are automatically locked into the first four seeds in both the AFC and NFC. The No. 3 and No. 4 seeds get to host an opening-round game even if the Wild Card team has a better record. If a division winner and Wild Card team have identical records, tiebreakers are not applied as the division winner automatically gets the higher seed.
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