Ravens Playoff Chances: Updated Outlook After Steelers’ Week 16 Loss

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Getty Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson

The Baltimore Ravens had to feel good about their chances to make the NFL playoffs entering Week 16. They wrapped up Saturday night feeling even better. Although Lamar Jackson and company still have to hold off multiple teams pushing for their postseason position, they put themselves in a great spot with a key win. Even more importantly, the Ravens are keeping the pressure on for the division title.

Baltimore pulled off an impressive 22-10 win over the Los Angeles Chargers on Saturday. They got this done on the road against Philip Rivers and a team who boasted one of the NFL’s best records at 11-3 entering the night. The Chargers also have plenty to play for still as well, considering they’re hot on the trail of the Kansas City Chiefs.

We’re going to break down the AFC playoff picture and also the chances for the Ravens to either win the division or lock up the final Wild Card spot after this win.

*Note: Updated outlook and chances/odds for Ravens listed below.

AFC Playoff Standings

1. Kansas City Chiefs 11 4 0
2. New England Patriots 10 5 0
3. Houston Texans 10 5 0
4. Baltimore Ravens 9 6 0
5. L.A. Chargers 11 3 0
6. Indianapolis Colts 9 6 0
7. Tennessee Titans 9 6 0
8. Pittsburgh Steelers 8 6 1

There’s quite a bit on the line for the Ravens in the final week and even to finish up Week 16. In turn, things can play out a variety of ways for them. They find themselves in position to potentially take control of the AFC North over the Pittsburgh Steelers when the weekend comes to a close.

If that alone isn’t interesting enough, consider that Ben Roethlisberger and company draw the 12-win New Orleans Saints on the road in Week 16. The Ravens, who have won five of their last six, could also land in the final Wild Card spot by winning in Week 17.

It’s an ideal spot to control your own destiny when it comes to postseason chances. Unfortunately, the Ravens can’t afford a slip-up with how well both the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans have played.

Ravens’ Playoff Chances

One key aspect that stands out here is the fact that the Ravens currently hold the tiebreaker for the No. 6 seed over the Colts due to win percentage in conference games. Baltimore now holds a 7-4 conference record while the Colts own a 6-5 mark. Here’s a quick look at the tiebreakers and how they could be used to decide the Wild Card if it comes to that, courtesy of NFL.com.

Head-to-head, if applicable.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss.

Although the Ravens control their fate, the odds improved drastically after the eye-opening win over the Chargers. As Playoff Status revealed, Baltimore went from having a 66 percent chance to finish on the outside of the playoffs looking in, to just 23 percent with the win. They now hold a 48 percent chance to win the division and grab the No. 4 seed.

Along with that, the odds show the Ravens have a 17 percent chance to finish at No. 3 and an 11 percent to land in the No. 6 seed.

Update: The Ravens’ win along with a loss by the Steelers bumped Baltimore’s odds in a big way. They now have a 60 percent chance to finish in the No. 4 spot and a 16 percent chance to land at No. 3, per Playoff Status.

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