Detroit NBA Playoff Chances: Updated Predictions for Pistons vs. Nuggets

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Detroit Pistons forward Blake Griffin

Nobody said it would be easy for Detroit to get back to the NBA Playoffs. A 4-game West Coast swing has seen the Pistons play 2 of the top-4 teams in the Western Conference (and a bottom-feeder in the Suns). Tuesday night, make that 3 of the top-4 with a road trip to the current No. 2 seed Denver Nuggets (9 p.m. EST, Fox Sports Detroit).

Detroit (37-36) has lost 2 straight single-digit contests to the Portland Trail Blazers and the Golden State Warriors. The Pistons are tied with the Brooklyn Nets for the No. 6 and No. 7 seeds. The Heat are only a game back of both.

Unfortunately for the Pistons, they can’t expect the Nuggets to cruise into the postseason. Denver sits just a half-game behind the Warriors for home-court advantage. On top of that, they want to get the bad taste of Sunday’s 42-point loss to the Pacers out of their mouths.

It’ll be a battle of strong frontcourts, as Detroit head coach Dwane Casey trots out a pair of All-Stars in Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond. Meanwhile, Denver head man Michael Malone possesses darkhorse Player of the Year candidate Nikola Jokic, as well as Paul Millsap.

Let’s take a look at Detroit’s playoff chances entering Tuesday, most likely seeding and remaining schedule.

Pistons Playoff Chances & Potential Seeds

The numbers say the Pistons are in good position to make the playoff, but the schedule suggests that may be tenuous. According to Playoff Status, Detroit enters the evening with an 88 percent chance of making the postseason. That split up into a 19 percent chance at the 8-seed, 29 percent at the 7-seed and another 40 percent chance at the 6-seed.

ESPN’s BPI is slightly more optimistic, giving the Pistons just over 89 percent odds. The metric also predicts a 41-41 record, which projects to a game ahead of the Heat and Nets at 40-42. Detroit has only been .500 or above 3 times in the last decade.

A win tonight could more or less clinch the postseason. Per Playoff Status, a win tonight boosts the overall postseason chances to 95 percent, while a loss only brings this down to 85 percent.

Most Important Games Down the Road for the Pistons

Now to the tenous part. Unfortunately for the Pistons, they have one of the more difficult remaining schedule out of Eastern Conference teams according to Playoff Status. Including tonight, Detroit faces off against 7 teams fighting for playoff positioning (@Denver, Indiana twice, Portland, @Oklahoma City and Charlotte).

Team Rankings pegs their final record at 42-40. With 9 games left, there are 5 games left with win probablities under 50 percent. Road trips to Denver, Indiana and Oklahoma City are all under 30 percent.

With that said, the final 2 games are relative layups. April 9 against the Grizzlies and the regular-season against the dreadful Knicks should be 2 more wins. A record of 41-41 should be enough to make the playoffs, so basically Detroit has to win those games and muster enough to win another pair.

The Pistons get 5 of the remaining 9 games in Motown. That plays into their hands, as they currently have an excellent record at Little Caesar’s Arena (23-13).