Nassir Little NBA Draft Profile: Update Projections for UNC Guard

Getty Nassir Little #5 of the North Carolina Tar Heels defends a shot from Jordan Nwora #33 of the Louisville Cardinals.

North Carolina expected to counter Duke and Zion Williamson with a combination of its veteran core and the addition of forward Nassir Little, the No. 3 player in the nation last year per 247 Sports. While seniors Cameron Johnson and Luke Maye came through in two wins over the Blue Devils, Little failed to eclipse double-digits in 3 tries.

The 6-foot-6, 220-pounder has only occasionally flashed his potential. He’s averaging just 9.4 points and 4.6 rebounds. However, Little scored an important 18 points, including a pair of highlight dunks in a blowout victory over No. 4 seed Florida State.

He figures to get a handful of chances to prove himself in front of a national audience this March, as the Tar Heels enter the NCAA Tournament as the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region. The journey to the program’s 21st Final Four starts Friday night versus Iona in Columbus (Ohio) (9:20 p.m. EST, TNT).

Despite the sporadic production, he still finds himself high up on NBA Draft boards. Let’s take a dive into his prognostications, as well as mock drafts and big boards.

Nassir Little Draft Projections & Mock Draft

Jeremy Woo of SI.com has docked him a few spots recently, no longer considering him a top-5 pick on his most recent mock draft. He calls for the Timberwolves to snatch him up with the No. 12 selection. Woo says that Little’s game is lagging behind his physical skills.

He has not looked the part as a potential Top 10 pick, and Coby White has set himself apart as North Carolina’s most intriguing prospect, but in this range of the draft, it’s much easier to justify taking a chance on Little’s appealing physical tools. Although his feel for the game has lagged behind this season, he’s still just a freshman, and if he improves his shooting and commits on defense, he has a fairly clear pathway to at least contributing in the NBA. The ceiling isn’t as high as some thought it was, but the floor might be a little more palatable than currently perceived, as well.

Bryan Kalbrosky of Hoops Hype shows in his updated aggregate mock draft that Little’s stock has taken a big dip. He lands in the top-10 in just one of five prognostications, and averages out to the No. 17 pick (outside the lottery).

Our own Jon Adams has Little going No. 11 to the Charlotte Hornets in his most recent mock draft. This is a change from the top-10 from his February update.

Nassir Little NBA Draft Big Board Rankings

Aran Smith’s NBA Draft Net has him as the No. 10 player in his top-100 prospects list, moving down just a spot from his last update.

ESPN’s Draft Board has him as the No. 3 small forward and No. 16 player overall, praising his defense while knocking his “developing” handles.

Strengths
– Elite physical profile for a modern combo forward. Explosive leaper off two feet. Long strides to the rim.
– Hard-nosed defender who can check up to four positions, allowing him to play some small-ball 4. Plays with energy. Will affect the game on the offensive and defensive glass. Late-rising prospect known for his toughness and intangibles.
– Improved perimeter shooter with great elevation on his jumper. Shot 38 percent from 3 in 60 games, according to Krossover data. Good footwork creating space with step-backs. Physical straight-line driver.

Improvement areas
– Limited feel for the game. Not an instinctive decision-maker.
– Handle still developing. Better offensively as a small-ball power forward than a wing. Finesse around the rim still improving. Wants to load off two feet. Does he have enough offensive skill to warrant a No. 1 selection?
– Still a streaky shooter, especially when contested

His struggles before still led to several top-10 projections, and hence, a big payday. With scouts and analysts starting to realize his limitations on the court at this point in his career, Little may be forced into returning for his sophomore season.

Tonight against the Gaels’ isn’t going to move the needle. Potential matchups with Kansas in the Sweet 16, Kentucky in the Elite 8, Virginia in the Final Four and possibly Duke for a 4th time in the final would absolutely do the trick.