Getty Head coach Randy Bennett of the Saint Mary's Gaels gestures during a semifinal game of the West Coast Conference basketball tournament.
Gonzaga has simply dominated the West Coast Conference for the last 2 decades. The Bulldogs have won either the regular-season or conference tournament titles in 19 of the last 20 seasons. There’s always been one team that occasionally gives them fits.
That team is Saint Mary’s. The Gaels, from the small town of Moraga (Calif.), have beat Gonzaga 3 out of the last 9 meetings since 2016.
Make that 4 out of the last 10. Saint Mary’s upset the top-ranked Zags 60-47 to punch a ticket into the NCAA Tournament for only the second time in 6 seasons. Tasmanian-born guard Tanner Krebs tallied 13 points on 5-of-9 shooting to help the Gaels to March Madness.
Tanner Krebs gets buckets for @saintmaryshoops. #WCChoops
Jordan Ford led the team with 17 points.
The Gaels improved to 22-11 with the win. While no longer worried about a bid, they still will have to wait until Selection Sunday until their seed is determined.
Let’s take a look at the possibilities and the Gaels’ resume, including a peek at best wins and losses.
Saint Mary’s NCAA Tournament Resume
The Gaels don’t have a lot to hang their hats on outside of tonight’s shocker. In the non-conference, they have just 2 wins over teams in the top-100 of the NET rankings (Utah Valley and New Mexico State). Overall, they went 9-6 outside of the WCC.
3 of those defeats are understandable (LSU, Mississippi State and a bubble team in Utah State), but the others are to teams like UC Irvine, Harvard and Western Kentucky.
Outside of two regular-season losses to Gonzaga, the Gaels went 11-3 during conference time. Road blemishes at BYU and San Francisco were to a pair of top-100 teams, but an overtime defeat at No. 167 Pepperdine stings.
This is the resume of an a program that should barely make the NIT, let alone the NCAA Tournament.
Saint Mary’s Bracketology Breakdown
ESPN’s John Gasaway stated that the Gaels’ only realistic option to March Madness was beating Gonzaga.
Think for a moment about the four-point losses Saint Mary’s recorded against Mississippi State and LSU in November and December, respectively. Either one of those games moved into the win column would make this a much stronger profile for the Gaels. As it is, however, the single Quad 1 win coming on the road at New Mexico State may not be sufficient to get SMC into the field of 68.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi had the Gaels as one of his “Next Four Out” in his latest Bracketology.
Jerry Palm of CBS Sports presents a similar scenario, not even listing them on his “First 4 Out.” He did mention in his own Bubble Watch that Saint Mary’s would be a potential “bid-stealer.”
The Gaels, currently not in the projected bracket, are a potential bid-stealer heading into the WCC Tournament title game. Gonzaga’s dominance in the WCC this season was never so pronounced as when the Zags won at Saint Mary’s by 48 the first time they played. The Gaels played them tougher the second time around, falling by 14 points just ten days ago. Saint Mary’s chances of an at-large bid are not great. The Gaels’ best win and only Quadrant 1 win came at New Mexico State.
Bracket Matrix aggregates several prognostications from across the internet. The Gaels appeared on just 11 of them, and averaged out to an 11.55. That would mean either an 11 or 12-seed.
No conference tournament champion has played in the First Four since the new format started in 2011. So that rules out Dayton as a possible destination. With such a massive upset, and also a No. 37 NET ranking heading into Tuesday, that likely rules out anything below a 12-seed.
With an excellent final impression to the committee, and almost a full week for other bubble teams to make or break their cases, expect the Gaels to earn one of the first No. 11 seeds.
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