Pistons NBA Playoff Chances: Latest Predictions After Win Over Pacers

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Aaron Gordon #00 of the Orlando Magic gets his shot blocked by Andre Drummond #0 of the Detroit Pistons.

The Pistons are closing in on just the third NBA Playoff berth in the last decade for the franchise, but they’re not making it easy. On Monday night, they dropped one to the Pacers 111-102 at Conseco Fieldhouse in the wake of Blake Griffin’s late scratch due to knee soreness.

In his place, Thon Maker and Andre Drummond, as well as 2 others, scored in double figures with 14 and 18, respectively.

Detroit (39-38) had won 2 straight after a 5-game road swing yielded a 1-4 record. Those recent wins for Dwane Casey’s bunch had come against playoff contenders in Portland and Orlando.

The Pistons are close to the franchise’s second winning season in the last 10 years. The final three contests come against teams with losing records, so two wins over the Hornets, Grizzlies or Knicks guarantees at least a .500 record.

Other results need to come in for a full standings update, but Detroit is tied for 6th place in the Eastern Conference standings with Brooklyn. Both the Pistons and Nets lead the Heat by another half-game. The Magic trail Miami by a half-game, as well.

Let’s take a look at Detroit’s playoff chances after Monday, most likely seeding and remaining schedule.

Pistons Playoff Chances & Potential Seeds

The numbers say the Pistons are almost a lock to make the playoffs, though a higher seed is out of reach. According to Playoff Status, Detroit entered the evening with a 97 percent chance of making the postseason. That has moved up to 96 percent, splitting into a 53 percent chance at the 6-seed, an 31 percent chance at the 7 and a 12 percent chance at the 8.

ESPN’s BPI is slightly less optimistic,(though it likely hasn’t updated), giving the Pistons just over 96 percent odds. The metric also predicts a 42-40 record, which projects to a game ahead of the Nets and Magic at 41-41. Miami would be squeezed out in Dwyane Wade’s final season at 40-42.

A win tonight could’ve nearly clinched the postseason. Per Playoff Status, a win over the Pacers would’ve boosted the odds to just under 99 percent.

Most Important Games Down the Road for the Pistons

Unfortunately for the Pistons, they have one of the more difficult roads down the stretch out of Eastern Conference teams according to Playoff Status. Before the matchups with the Grizzlies and Knicks to end the year, Detroit faces off against the Pacers again, at Oklahoma City and a Charlotte team whose on its last playoff legs.

Team Rankings pegs their final record at 42-40. With 5 games left, there is just one game with a win probability under 50 percent (at the Thunder). The only other one near 50/50 odds is Wednesday versus Indiana at Little Caesar’s Arena.

The other three contests each sit at 66 percent odds or more of winning. Charlotte, Indiana and Memphis, in particular, are home games. That plays into their hands, as they currently have an excellent record at Little Caesar’s Arena (25-13).