Francesco Molinari Masters Odds: Golfer Was Major Longshot to Win

Getty Francesco Molinari of Italy reacts on the third green during the first round of the Masters at Augusta National Golf Club.

Francesco Molinari surged atop the Masters leaderboard with a 5-under par performance on Friday. At 7-under overall, he is currently tied with Australia’s Jason Day and also leads the likes of Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka by a stroke.

This is certainly a surprise for some, as the 36-year old Italian from Turin was seen by many as a longshot coming into this week at Augusta National. While he was in the top-20 odds to take home the green jacket, he was closer to the bottom of that list.

Per Bleacher Report, he held 22/1 odds, while Rory McIlroy (whose in danger of missing the cut altogether) was at 7/1 odds. Day entered the week with 25/1 odds, for what it’s worth.

OddsShark also gave him +2500 odds, well behind McIlroy at +650.

Those chances are rapidly changing. Andrew Freedman of Action Network is telling bettors to “bet on Francesco Molinari.”

If Molinari can get his putter going as he did at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him have the best finish of his career at this event. He’s been dialed in over the past 50 rounds, ranking 10th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and 14th in Strokes Gained: Approach (Fantasy National).

Also in various matchup prop bets, Freedman is telling people to go with Molinari. He has demonstrated improved putting at Augusta National, as his final birdie on Day One indicated.

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6:54 pm · 11 Apr 2019

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This isn’t totally a revelation to golf statisticians. According to Sean Martin of PGA Tour.com, Molinari has been slashing strokes off his game with his putting all season, which has led to recent wins at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Molinari’s Strokes Gained: Putting has improved by more than a stroke last year. He was losing nearly a half-stroke per round on the greens last year. Now he’s picking up a little more than a half-stroke. He’s jumped from 182nd to 23rd in that statistic.

Molinari’s improvement (+1.05 strokes per round) in that statistic is the largest this season. A former Masters champion, Adam Scott, has the second-largest jump (+0.97).

Also, Molinari has shown calm under pressure on the big stage before. He seized the Claret Jug at last year’s Open Championship at Carnoustie. Matt Youmans of the New York Post noted this, giving Molinari better odds than most to win this week.

Brooks Koepka has won two of the past three majors. Molinari won the other, the British Open, last summer. He’s got a hot putter and is in great form, winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational in early March.

With his sizzling first two rounds, Molinari is now the odds-on favorite to win the 2019 Masters (per FanDuel Sportsbook) at +220.