Getty Kevin Durant #35 of the Golden State Warriors is congratulated by Draymond Green #23 and Andrew Bogut #12 after he dunked the ball against the Denver Nuggets.
Entering the final days of the NBA regular season, some questions remain unanswered. Who’s going to emerge out of the logjam for the final seeds in the Eastern Conference. Are Russell Westbrook, Paul George and the Thunder really going to finish No. 8 in the West?
There’s one (nearly) absolute truth: the Golden State Warriors will earn the No. 1 seed in the West for the 4th time in 5 seasons. They dispatched the 2nd-place Denver Nuggets 116-102 Tuesday night at ORACLE Arena. 5 players scored in double figures, while the much-maligned defense stifled the Nuggets to under 38 percent shooting.
The Warriors improved to 53-24, two whole games in front of Denver for home-court advantage in the West. They also seized the season series 3-1 over their foes from the Northwest division.
Even today’s fines/ejections didn’t seem to bother Golden State. Draymond Green, Steph Curry and Kevin Durant combined to receive $75,000 in penalties due to public complaints about questionable calls from Friday’s overtime loss to Minnesota. Durant was ejected for hissing at the refs about a call.
Alternate angle of the Kevin Durant ejection
A win tonight could’ve brought Denver into a tie atop the West, but down 2 games with just 5 left is a tall mountain to climb.
Let’s take a look at Golden State’s playoff predictions after Tuesday, especially the most likely seeding and remaining schedule.
Warriors Playoff Chances & Potential Seeds
The Warriors show up when they have to, including a pair of blowout wins over the Nuggets and another over the Thunder. This offsets mind-boggling blemishes to the Suns, Timberwolves and Mavericks.
According to Playoff Status, Golden State entered the evening with an 80 percent chance of seizing the top spot in the Western Conference. There was also a 19 percent chance at the 2-seed and less than 1 percent chances at the 3 and 4.
ESPN’s BPI predicts a 56-26 mark on the season, which also calls for a No. 1 seed. The probability of winning the NBA title is 18.5 percent, which is second to the Milwaukee Bucks at a whopping 41.8 percent. Toronto is third at just over 14 percent.
Per Playoff Status, the win essentially clinched the top seed. There’s currently a 98 percent chance of it, a 2 percent chance at the 2 and a the same miniscule odds at the 3 and 4.
Most Important Games Down the Road for the Warriors
Fortunately for the Heat, they hold the fourth-easiest remaining schedule out of Western Conference teams according to Playoff Status. This includes four games against teams with less than a .500 record. This obviously looks good, but losses to last-place Phoenix last month means that there are no layups.
Team Rankings pegs their final record at 56-26. The last really challenging matchup is an April 7 showdown with the surging Clippers, though it’s in the Bay Area.
At of the 5 remaining games, all of them have at least than 62 percent win probabilities, including 2 above 77 percent. The highest game (Cleveland at 94 percent) should be against a team looking more towards the draft than anything else. 3 road games at the Lakers, Pelicans and Grizzlies could see trip-ups, as Steve Kerr will likely be resting his stars once the No. 1 seed is truly clinched.
The Warriors are 25-13 away from Oakland, so the road does not automatically equal issues.