Getty D.J. Augustin #14 of the Orlando Magic tries to get a first half shot off next to Reggie Jackson #1 of the Detroit Pistons.
Only two starters for Orlando scored in double figures Monday, contributing to a 121-109 loss to the Toronto Raptors. Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka helped contain Magic center Nikola Vucevic to just 13 points on 14 shots to fuel the 12-point win.
Last week, Orlando (38-40) used a 24-point outing from Vucevic to top fellow Eastern Conference playoff contender Miami 105-99 to climb higher into postseason contention.
In fact, Orlando head coach Steve Clifford had his team on a bit of a tear, winning 7 of its last 9 games to surge closer towards its first playoff berth since 2012. That’s also the same year the franchise last finished above .500.
The road gets easier the next few games, as the lowly Knicks and Hawks both visit Amway Center. Let’s take a look at Orlando’s playoff chances, most likely seeding and remaining schedule.
Magic Playoff Chances & Potential Seeds
According to Playoff Status, Orlando entered the evening with a 71 percent chance of making the postseason. That split up into a 43 percent chance at the 8-seed and a 24 percent chance at the 7-seed and a 4 percent chance at the 6.
ESPN’s BPI was slightly more optimistic, giving the Magic 76 percent postseason odds. The metric also predicts a 41-41 record, just a game ahead of the Heat at 40-42 (squeezing Dwayne Wade out of the playoff in his final season).
A win tonight could’ve gone a long way toward cementing the playoffs (91 percent) per Playoff Status. The loss, however, drops the chances to 67 percent, but still a strong 44 percent at the 8-seed.
Most Important Games Down the Road for the Magic
Fortunately for the Magic, they hold one of the easier remaining schedules out of Eastern Conference teams according to Playoff Status. That consists of the two layups against New York and Atlanta, as well as a Charlotte team on its last playoff legs and a Boston squad that should be resting starters for the finale.
Team Rankings pegs their final record at 41-41. While the projections are currently getting better, the Magic need to ensure no slip-ups against the dregs of the schedule (aka the Knicks and Hawks).
Team Rankings projects both of those as wins with over 77 percent certainty, including 83 percent versus the Knicks. The other two games, however, are on the road. Both hold 41 percent win probabilities or less, including a paltry 24.5 percent against the Celtics.
The Magic may have to reverse a major negative trend in road games to make the final push. They are just 15-23 on the season away from Amway Center.