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Welcome to the world of a new and (hopefully) improved NBA Draft Lottery. Over the years, the lottery has been a talking point and for many, an area of frustration. The league has made a few tweaks over time to the structure, another of which just recently went into play for the 2019 lottery.
The rules behind the lottery will now be changed so that the team with the worst record can receive no worse than the No. 5 pick overall, while they could previously fall no further than No. 4. The NBA detailed the latest rules behind the NBA Draft Lottery, and we’re going to breakdown the structure of how things work, the odds that are given to each team and every other aspect.
We’ll start with the lottery odds for each team to land the No. 1 pick in the 2019 NBA Draft, and how that decision is made.
How NBA Draft Lottery Odds Work
Every team who did not make the NBA playoffs is entered into the lottery, and any team who has a previous trade to take a lottery team’s pick is also in the mix (assuming there are no protections on the selection). The odds for each team to earn the No. 1 pick are based on final records from the previous season, with the team who had the fewest wins receiving the best odds.
We’ll use the 2019 NBA Draft Lottery as a way to evaluate the structure.
| Team | Record | Lottery Odds for No. 1 Pick |
| New York Knicks | 17-65 | 14.0% |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 19-63 | 14.0% |
| Phoenix Suns | 19-63 | 14.0% |
| Chicago Bulls | 22-60 | 12.5% |
| Atlanta Hawks | 29-53 | 10.5% |
| Washington Wizards | 32-50 | 9.0% |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 33-49 | 6.0% |
| Memphis Grizzlies* | 33-49 | 6.0% |
| Dallas Mavericks** | 33-49 | 6.0% |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | 36-46 | 3.0% |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 37-45 | 2.0% |
| Charlotte Hornets | 39-43 | 1.0% |
| Miami Heat | 39-43 | 1.0% |
| Sacramento Kings*** | 39-43 | 1.0% |
*Pick may go to Boston Celtics
**Pick may go to Atlanta Hawks
***Pick may go to Boston Celtics (picks 2-14) or Philadelphia 76ers (if No. 1 overall)
It’s worth noting that the odds for the No. 1 pick in most years are slightly different than what’s seen above, but it depends on ties for the regular-season record. For example, the 2019 NBA Draft has three teams tied at 6.0 percent, but if the teams had different records, team No. 7 would have a 7.5 percent chance, No. 8 at 6.0 percent and No. 9 at 4.5 percent.
Beyond that, the bottom three teams also finished with the same marks. So instead of No. 12 having a 1.5 percent chance, No. 13 receiving 1.0 percent and No. 14 at 0.5 percent, they’ll all receive a 1.0 percent chance to earn the top pick.
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The percentages above were recently changed with the new system, as it gives each of the top-three teams an equal chance at landing the No. 1 pick. Under the previous system, the team with the worst record was given a 25.0 percent chance, second had a 19.9 percent chance and third was pegged at 15.6 percent.
How NBA Draft Lottery Works
The league offered a breakdown of how they go about setting up the lottery and deciding which teams pick where. It begins with the actual lottery process taking part in another room just before the on-camera action gets underway.
Regarding the structure, it features 14 ping-pong balls placed into a lottery machine, and plays out as follows, per the NBA:
The drawing process occurs in the following manner: All 14 balls are placed in the lottery machine and they are mixed for 20 seconds, and then the first ball is removed. The remaining balls are mixed in the lottery machine for another 10 seconds, and then the second ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the third ball is drawn. There is a 10-second mix, and then the fourth ball is drawn. The team that has been assigned that combination will receive the No. 1 pick. The same process is repeated with the same ping-pong balls and lottery machine for the second through fourth picks.
In order to ensure consistency, the timekeeper who monitors the amount of time the balls are mixed for each pick faces away from the machine and informs the operator when time is up.
As far as the remainder of the first-round picks and all second-round selections, the order is set based on record, going from worst-to-best. This means the team with the best regular-season record receives the No. 30 overall pick while the worst record among playoff teams picks No. 15.
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