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Towards the end of last season, the New England Patriots evolved from a passing offense to a downhill running team. It came after deep threat Josh Gordon was suspended indefinitely, taking away a major aspect of the Patriots’ offensive scheme.
The direct beneficiary of that was Sony Michel. As a rookie, his production increased dramatically. Including playoffs, he played in 16 games, scoring 12 touchdowns and racking up 1,267 yards with 4.5 yards per carry.
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He had a healthy offensive line in front of him, one of the best in football, and took advantage of his opportunities when they came. How possible is it for him to repeat that success?
The Patriots offense is looking like it will be extremely pass-heavy this season and with five running backs vying for carries and sharing the backfield it will be hard to get tons of touches.
Michel could still run for 1,000 yards this season as that has become more commonplace over the years. But whether he continues to get touches in meaningful red-zone possessions is doubtful and he has had little involvement in the receiving game.
Let’s dive deeper.
In The Red
Michel was a real threat in the red zone last season, accounting for nearly half of New England’s rushes from inside the 20 and scoring five of his six regular-season touchdowns from close range.
While that’s encouraging, it’s also likely to change. James White is a big red zone producer and the Patriots might opt to go with a more physical runner like Damien Harris from close range to preserve Michel for early-down duties. As mentioned earlier, New England has a lot of weapons this season and it could result in lower workload for certain skill players.
More Carries, More Yardage
Michel’s best games came when he had over 20 carries last season. In fact, all but one of his 100-yard games, regular season and playoffs, came when he had 20-plus carries. The one outlier was against Buffalo when he rushed for 116 yards and 18 carries.
Conversely, in games where he had fewer than 15 carries he never made it over 60 yards. In those contests, he only averaged 3.9 yards per carry and was largely ineffective at finding the endzone. That’s the big worry for Michel this season given he is likely to see slightly fewer carries. He will have to make up for his lower body of work by gaining more yards per carry.
Worth the Risk?
It’s not as much if he will produce but mainly how the number of skill players in the Patriots’ offense will share touches. Michel is the Patriots top running back, but labels mean nothing in Bill Belichick’s system.
He’s still a second-year back with much to prove and questions linger over whether he can stay healthy for a full season. But he is extremely talented and running behind the Patriots’ offensive line is always an advantage.
Who knows, you pick him up as a reserve running back to start the year and he could become your RB1 by year’s end. That would be a steal. He’s low-risk, high-reward as a bench guy.
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