Navy vs Memphis Prediction: Betting Lines, Odds & Pick

Getty Navy has one of the best rushing offenses in the country.

Week 5 of the college football season kicks off on Thursday in grand style down south. The Navy Midshipmen, who have started the season with two blowout wins, are coming off a bye week and will take on fellow unbeaten Memphis on the road.

The Tigers stepped onto the scene with a bang this year, taking a 15-10 win over Ole Miss followed by two wins over FCS opposition. Also coming off a bye week, Memphis will have its hands full against a talented, physical Navy team that likes to wear down its opposition with a run-heavy style on offense.

It’s a battle between one of the nation’s top defensive teams and the FBS leader in total rushing offense.

Navy Midshipmen vs Memphis Tigers

Thursday, September 26, 2019 at 8 p.m.

Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis, Tennessee

Coverage: ESPN

*All odds and betting info courtesy of OddsShark and originally posted by BetOnline

Spread: Memphis (-10.5 at -112)
Over/Under: 54 (O -110|U -110)

Navy Midshipmen

No team in the country moves the ball as effectively on the ground as Navy. Running a triple-option has proven tough to defend. Navy’s quarterback, Malcolm Perry, can run and pass well, throwing for 151 yards in their recent win over East Carolina along with 156 rushing yards.

Another option out of the backfield is fullback Nelson Smith. Tough to tackle, Smith rushed for 53 yards against ECU and 92 yards in the season opener against Holy Cross. He hasn’t gotten a ton of touches in his career so far, but averages 5.0 yards carry and has already tied his career-high in touchdowns this year.

Navy’s defense has held up strong as well, limiting opponents to 226 yards per game. Part of that has been successful on third downs, holding opponents to just a 53 percent conversion rate on the year — 10th in FBS.

Memphis Tigers

Equally, as impressive on defense, the Tigers are third in FBS in total defense also allowing only 226 yards per game this season. They have allowed the fewest passing yards per game (110) and opponents are just a combined 26 for 64 passing against the Tigers.

Memphis has a pair of running backs, Kenneth Gainwell and Kylan Watkins, who are capable of eating up yardage with ease. Gainwell rushed for 145 yards in Memphis victory over South Alabama two weeks ago. Watkins was even more effective with 113 yards on just 11 carries.

Going against a Navy team that allows just 74 rushing yards per game, passing might be the key for Memphis. Fortunately, quarterback Brady White can sling it and has thrown five touchdown passes to just two interceptions this year.

Prediction

Both teams have moved the ball well on offense and have also shut down opponents on defense. Memphis has had more trouble stopping the run and Navy the pass which plays into both teams’ strengths.

Navy has always been a big under team and that could be the case again this week. With both teams facing their toughest test of the season, it will be tough to move the ball early in the game.

Pick: Until one team figures out how to move the ball offensively, it will be a low-scoring game. So take the under here and take Navy against the spread. Call it a 24-16 win for Memphis at home.