UCLA vs. Arizona Prediction: Betting Line, Odds & Pick

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Getty TUCSON, AZ - NOVEMBER 24: Quarterback Khalil Tate #14 of the Arizona Wildcats looks to throw a pass as he rolls out against the Arizona State Sun Devils during the first half of the college football game at Arizona Stadium on November 24, 2018 in Tucson, Arizona. (Photo by Ralph Freso/Getty Images)

The UCLA Bruins aim to build on last week’s epic comeback win when they visit the Arizona Wildcats on Saturday night.

UCLA was a mess for three and a half games before showing signs of life in the second half against Washington State, outscoring them 50-28 to erase a 32-point deficit.

Arizona is coming off a bye week after an impressive 28-14 win against Texas Tech, their second straight victory after opening the season with a road loss at Hawaii. UCLA leads the all-time series 25-16-2 and they won the last meeting 31-30 on October 20, 2018.

UCLA Bruins (1-3) vs. Arizona Wildcats (2-1)

Saturday, September 28 at 10:30 PM ET

Arizona Stadium

Coverage: ESPN

*All odds and betting info courtesy of OddsShark and originally posted by Jazz Sports

  • UCLA vs. Arizona -6.5
  • Over/Under: 71.5

UCLA Bruins

Dorian Thompson-Robinson showed flashes of the dual-threat skills that made him one of the best prospects in last year’s signing class by completing 25 of 38 passes for 507 yards and five touchdowns with one interception and he also ran for 57 yards and two more scores on 11 carries.

Wide receivers Demetric Felton and Chase Cota had 150 and 147 receiving yards respectively and tight end Devin Asiasi, who played well in last year’s meeting, was a reliable, mid-range threat, catching four passes for 50 yards and one touchdown. Still, the fact that UCLA surrendered 63 points last week is concerning and is obvious that this defense still has many question marks.

Arizona Wildcats

Arizona was able to overcome the Texas Tech air raid in Week 3 and UCLA will present a similar challenge, based on their playmakers on offense and their potential. Arizona could cause trouble to UCLA if they generate turnovers though, as they rank sixth in the nation in turnover margin while UCLA is just 82nd. Also, UCLA lacks defensive depth and the Arizona offensive can exploit this, just like they did against Texas Tech.

The player to watch in this game will be dual-threat quarterback Khalil Tate, who completed 14 of 23 passes for 185 yards and one touchdown with two interceptions and rushed for 129 yards and one score on 17 carries against Texas Tech. Jalen Hurts gashed UCLA when Oklahoma crushed them 48-14 and Tate’s skill set is similar to his.

Tate had 230 yards and two touchdowns against UCLA in a 47-30 win on October 14, 2017 but he missed last year’s meeting due to an ankle injury. The talented signal-caller is completely healthy and he has a team-best 238 rushing yards this season, averaging 7.4 yards per carry.

Trends and Prediction

The UCLA Bruins are:

  • 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games on grass
  • 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game
  • 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 280 passing yards in their previous game
  • 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game
  • 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up win
  • 4-14-1 ATS in their last 19 games following an ATS win
  • 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games in September

The Arizona Wildcats are:

  • 6-0 ATS in Arizona’s last six games against a team with a losing record
  • 6-1 ATS in their last seven games on grass
  • 5-1 ATS in their last six home games
  • 5-1 ATS in their last six home games against a team with a losing road record
  • 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games

The Under is:

  • 11-3 in UCLA’s last 14 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game
  • 38-16-1 in UCLA’s last 55 games after accumulating more than 280 passing yards in their previous game
  • 6-2 in Arizona’s last eight games in September

While UCLA looked unstoppable in the second half of last week’s epic win against Washington State, their defense was a disaster and they struggled to keep the chains moving. Arizona has an explosive team that will be rested and can move the ball well. Both teams have leaky pass defenses but this is a very high total so my lean is on the Under and I like Arizona, a team built for a track meet, to make UCLA come back to Earth.

Pick: Arizona -6.5 & Under 71.5

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