Nationals vs. Astros Prediction: World Series Game 7

Getty Nationals Pitcher Max Scherzer

It’s the best two words in sports. Game seven. It’s happened 39 times previously in World Series history. Number 40 will occur on Wednesday night between the Astros and Nationals, capping off a memorable Fall Classic.

Washington will send ace Max Scherzer to the mound in what will go down as the biggest start in the career of the three-time Cy Young Award winner. Scherzer’s health is a big question as he was scratched from his Game 5 start with neck and back spasms. Mad Max declared himself “good to go” after a side session on Tuesday.

Houston will counter with Zack Greinke, who has struggled this postseason with a 5.30 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. However, Greinke was able to grind through 4.2 innings in Game 3, allowing just one run, helping swing momentum in the series back to Houston. The matchup will be the first time in MLB history that two former Cy Young winners will square off in Game 7 of the World Series.

All six games of this series have been won by the road team. Washington has a chance to become the first team in baseball history to win all four games of a World Series away from home.

This will be the third World Series in the last four years that has gone to a decisive seventh game.  We’ve had a little of everything, including umpire drama, road dominance, and some great pitching performances.

Here’s a gambling breakdown for Game 7 of the World Series between the Nationals and Astros.


Game 7 Details:  Nationals at Astros

Date: Wednesday, October 30
Time: 8:08 p.m. ET
Location:  Minute Maid Park (Houston, Texas)
TV: FOX
Line: Astros -138
Total: 7.5
*All odds are courtesy of Covers


Betting Trends

  • Nationals are 7-0 in last 7 road games
  • Astros are 1-4 in last 5 World Series games
  • Over is 6-1-1 in Nationals last 8 playoff games
  • Over is 4-0 in last 4 Astros home playoff games
  • Astros are 5-2 in last 7 games with Jim Wolf as home plate umpire
  • Over is 35-17-6 in last 58 games with Jim Wolf as home plate umpire

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Predictions

The uncertainty surrounding Max Scherzer’s health makes this game very tough to handicap. If Mad Max is 100%, the edge has to go to the Nats. Scherzer has posted a 2.16 ERA this postseason, allowing just a .161 opposing batting average and with 34 strikeouts in 25 innings. Meanwhile, Greinke has lived on the edge throughout the playoffs. His mental fragility is the big question mark for Houston and I’m not sure where the Astros turn if Greinke is shaky early. Gerrit Cole is available, but for how long? Take the Nats getting a half run in the first five innings and hope Scherzer is healthy enough to outduel Greinke.

PICK: Nationals +0.5 Five Inning RL (-140)

As for the total, both teams have swung it well in this series regardless of who is pitching. The over has hit in four straight Astros home games this postseason and the Nats total has gone over in seven of their last eight playoff games. The Jim Wolf trend is also appealing. The over is hitting at 60% in Wolf’s last 58 games as the home plate umpire.

PICK: Over 7.5 

Finally, a bonus pick for the true degenerates. In six games this series, a run has been scored in the first inning four times, which is a very profitable trend considering you usually get even or better juice on the “Yes” side of the first-inning score bet. One of these pitchers will start slow and this trend will improve to 5-2 in the series.

PICK: Run in First Inning – Yes (+100)


READ NEXTStephen Strasburg: Game 6 Could Be His Last Pitch for Washington

Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith


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