The Kansas City Chiefs (5-2), who will very likely be without their reigning MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes, will host the Green Bay Packers (6-1) Sunday night at Arrowhead Stadium. Chiefs backup Matt Moore will get the start against Aaron Rodgers, who is coming off a six-touchdown performance last week.
The Chiefs are coming off their best defensive showing of the season against the Denver Broncos, and the Packers defense has cooled down in recent weeks. Both teams are in first place in their respective divisions, and this game could come down to which defensive unit plays the best. Here’s a game preview with betting lines and our prediction.
The Chiefs will be tested without Mahomes. Matt Moore went 10-19 for 117 yards, a touchdown and no interceptions in relief against a tough Broncos defense. Look for Andy Reid to help Moore by getting the run game going in this game.
The Chiefs are 29th in the league against the run, and they will be tested with Aaron Jones. Jones is tied for the league lead in touchdowns with eight, and the Packers will likely lean heavily on him to wear down Kansas City’s defense.
Aaron Rodgers is always one of the biggest threats in the league wherever he goes, and the Chiefs will have to play their best football of the season in order to have a chance in this one. Rodgers is coming off the first perfect game of his career, and he didn’t even have his top receiver on the field.
The Packers have been hit or miss on defense all season. They have a decent pass rush, but they’ve shown a soft spot in coverage against opposing tight ends. Travis Kelce, in particular, could be a difficult matchup for this Packers defense. Green Bay gave up three touchdowns to three different tight ends in their last game against the Raiders. Look for Andy Reid to try to exploit them again with Kelce, especially in the middle of the field.
Trends, Pick & Prediction
SPREAD: Chiefs +3.5
Moore may be no Mahomes, but he’s a capable enough veteran to run Andy Reid’s offense. He also has the same weapons Mahomes has in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. This game is shaping up to be a close one. Some relevant trends surrounding the game courtesy of Odds Shark:
• The total has gone OVER in 10 of Kansas City’s last 15 games.
• Kansas City is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 6 games against Green Bay.
• The Chiefs are 12-5 SU in their last 17 games at home.
• Green Bay is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay’s last 5 games.
• The Packers are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games.
• Green Bay is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against Kansas City.
The Packers are the favorite in this game for a reason. Aaron Rodgers against any backup quarterback in this league is an automatic mismatch. Look for the Chiefs to play hard in a close and high scoring game.
Prediction: Green Bay 34, Kansas City 31