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The Denver Broncos nearly pulled off the upset of the year last week against the Minnesota Vikings. Despite leading 20-0 at halftime, Denver was outscored 27-3 in the second half as they fell to 3-7 on the season. The Buffalo Bills took care of business in South Beach, with an impressive 37-20 victory over the Miami Dolphins. The victory kept Buffalo on firm footing in the playoff picture as they remain the top wild card team in the AFC. It was also a breakout performance for quarterback Josh Allen who threw for 256 yards and three touchdowns with zero turnovers. Sunday’s game is critical for the Bills who are about to enter the meat of their schedule with matchups against the Dallas Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, and New England Patriots all looming over the next four weeks.
We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for this matchup between the Broncos and Bills.
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Broncos vs. Bills Game Details
Date: Sunday, November 24
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Location: New Era Field (Buffalo, New York)
TV: CBS
Spread: Bills -3.5
Total: 36.5
*All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Line Movement
This line opened at Bills -5.5 and has been bet all the way down to Bills -3.5 at some books, according to VegasInsider.com. The action is split with the Bills receiving 53% of the bets and the Broncos getting 55% of the money, according to The Action Network. This indicates a slight reverse line movement favoring Denver.
The total opened at 35 and has been bet up slightly to 36.5 or 37 at most books with 72% of the bets and 73% of the money coming in on the over.
Betting Trends
- Broncos are 6-4 ATS this season
- Bills are 6-3-1 ATS this season
- Under is 6-4 in Broncos games this season
- Under is 7-3 in Bills games this season
- Denver is 1-4 SU and 3-2 ATS on the road this season
- Buffalo is 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS at home this season
*All trends are courtesy of Covers
Analysis & Picks
This will be the last potential layup on the Bills schedule until a Week 17 tilt against the New York Jets as Buffalo will truly be tested during the month of December. That creates a potential lookahead spot on Sunday as the Broncos come in playing pretty decent football. As good as Denver played in the first half last week against the Vikings, that’s how bad they played in the second half in coughing up a 20-0 lead against Minnesota. Despite the collapse, you can’t overlook the play of Brandon Allen and Courtland Sutton, who have found nice chemistry together. Sutton had nine grabs for 113 yards and a touchdown in the 27-23 loss to the Vikings. The bad news for Denver though, Buffalo is ranked third in the NFL allowing just 197.8 yards per game through the air. The low total suggests this game will be a slugfest, and I have to side with Buffalo at home and fade the line movement. Josh wins the battle of the Allen quarterbacks, swallow the points and take the favorite.
PICK: Bills -3.5 (-110)
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Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith
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