Getty Brian Hoyer #2 of the Indianapolis Colts will get the start this week against the Dolphins. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images)
The Miami Dolphins, (1-7) fresh from their first win of the season, will head to Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis to face the Colts (5-3) Sunday. The Colts will be without starting quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who will be resting his knee after he sprained his MCL last week against the Steelers.
The Dolphins have been bad all season, but they have an opportunity to hit the Colts while they’re down in this one. Here’s a breakdown of the game followed by trends and our prediction:
Dolphins
The Dolphins have been anemic on offense this season, averaging just 12.9 points a game, but quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick had a solid game last week against the Jets. Fitzpatrick threw for 288 yards and three touchdowns in a 26-18 victory. He’ll face a Colts defense that’s giving up just over 22 points a game.
On defense, the Dolphins have been equally dreadful, giving up 32 points and over 150 yards rushing a game. If the Colts can get their star running back Marlon Mack going in this one, it could be a very long day for this Dolphins defense.
Colts
Veteran quarterback Bryan Hoyer will lead the Colts in Brissett’s absence. Hoyer threw for 168 yards, three touchdowns and one interception in relief of Brissett against the Steelers last week. The Colts will also be without star wide receiver T.Y. Hilton, who is out with a calf injury.
Indianapolis will need to get Marlon Mack going in this one. Mack has 679 yards on the season, and the Dolphins have the second-worst defense against the run in the league–the Colts have to capitalize on this imbalanced matchup.
On defense, the Colts have been just average. They’re giving up 22.1 points and 339.9 yards a game, but they’re facing a Dolphins team with the second-worst rushing attack in football and the fourth-worst passing attack in the league. Indy has a prime opportunity to go out and dominate this game on defense while getting a statement win at home.
Trends, Pick & Prediction
The following numbers and trends are courtesy of Odds Shark:
Spread: Dolphins +11.5
Over/Under: 44
Odds Shark currently have the Dolphins losing by a projected score of 35-11, which has the Colts winning the game, covering the spread and the total score going over.
Some relevant trends surrounding the game courtesy of Odds Shark:
• The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami’s last 7 games.
• Miami is 1-10 SU in their last 11 games.
• The Dolphins are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games against Indianapolis.
• Miami is 0-10 SU in their last 10 games on the road.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis’ last 6 games.
• The Colts are 15-5 SU in their last 20 games.
• Indianapolis is 9-1 SU in their last 10 games at home.
• The Colts are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games this season.
We’re with Odds Shark on all but one thing here: with Brissett out, we don’t see the total going over. Still, the Colts should win handily at home and cover the spread against a very bad Miami team.
Final Prediction: Colts 24, Dolphins 14
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