NFL Betting Lines & Odds: 5 Top Predictions & Picks for Week 11

Week 11 in the NFL features 12 games on Sunday and plenty of opportunities to beat the book. Below I share my 5 best NFL bets for Sunday. All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

We’ll start things off with an interesting matchup which features a six-win Buffalo Bills team on the road taking on the underdog Miami Dolphins.

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Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

These two teams played four weeks ago and the Buffalo Bills won 31-21. It was a low-scoring game until the fourth quarter when Buffalo outscored the Miami Dolphins 22-7 and secured the win. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been very up and down not only this season but throughout his entire career. Fitz has thrown eight picks this season but only one in the last two games, both victories. That being said, this feels like a good sell-high spot for Miami, who has won two straight and are all of a sudden a trendy dog. The Bills have the edge on the ground in this game with Frank Gore and Devin Singletary having strong seasons and the Dolphins allowing 146.1 rushing yards per game. Two weeks ago, this line would have been at least three or four points higher. Anything under a touchdown for the Bill is a good value pick. Swallow the points.

PICK: Bills -6.5

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

This feels like a good sell-high spot for the Atlanta Falcons as I expect a let down after the huge victory over the Saints. The Carolina Panthers rushing attack is among the best in the league, averaging 131.4 yards per game on the ground. Christian McCaffrey is the big reason why. The MVP hopeful has 989 yards on the ground this season with 11 rushing touchdowns. McCaffrey is also the team’s fourth-leading receiver with 396 yards and three touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Falcons don’t stop the run very well, allowing 111.0 yards per game. You’re getting line value on both sides here with Atlanta coming off a win and Carolina off a loss. The home team has also dominated this series, covering 10 of the last 13 games. Take the home favorite.

PICK: Panthers -4

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens are flying high. Fresh off blowout wins over the Cincinnati Bengals and New England Patriots, in comes the Houston Texans looking to play spoiler and further solidify their positioning in the AFC playoff race. The stat which stands out to me in this game is how well Houston defends the run. The Texans are ranked third in the NFL allowing just 84.1 rushing yards per game. I think the Ravens rushing attack could be neutralized a bit which will force Lamar Jackson to put the ball in the air. Meanwhile, Deshaun Watson is having an MVP-type season for the Texans which nobody is talking about. Watson has 18 touchdowns and just five picks this season. Deshaun outduels Lamar in a showdown of successful college quarterbacks who have made the difficult transition to the NFL.

PICK: Texans +4

Cincinnati Bengals at Oakland Raiders

Ironically enough, all three ATS victories this season for the Cincinnati Bengals have come away from home, but this just feels like a bad spot for the road team. The Oakland Raiders are finding their groove offensively, and the Bengals have the worst scoring defense in the NFL, allowing 28.8 points per game. Derek Carr has six touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last three games. Josh Jacobs leads all rookies by a large margin with 811 rushing yards. Needless to say, there are a lot of things to like about Oakland here. The opposite can be said for Cincinnati, who seemed to have quit on first-year head coach Zac Taylor. Ryan Finley completed just 16-of-30 passes for 167 yards in Sunday’s loss. The game was Finley’s first career start, replacing long-time Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton, who was benched two weeks ago. Yes, 11 is a lot of points, but don’t overthink this. Take Oakland.

PICK: Raiders -11.5

Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams

This line opened with the Los Angeles Rams being favored by 7.5, but the line has crossed over the key number of 7 and is now sitting Rams -6.5 at most books, according to VegasInsider.com. The move should come as no surprise as Jared Goff looked abysmal last week against a good Pittsburgh Steelers defense. The bad news for Goff, I think the Chicago Bears defense might be better than Pittsburgh’s. This is too many points to swallow in what should be a road atmosphere for the Rams with Chicago fans flooding the Coliseum on Sunday night.

PICK: Bears +6.5

Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith