Bills vs. Dolphins Prediction: Betting Line, Odds & Pick

Getty Kalen Ballage of the Miami Dolphins

The Buffalo Bills burst out of the gates with five wins in their first six games. But two losses in their last three and the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL has some doubting the legitimacy of Buffalo’s early-season success. Miami Dolphins have played decent football the last two weeks and have earned their first two victories of the season. The game is a reunion of sorts for Ryan Fitzpatrick who played for Buffalo from 2009-12. The Bills have the edge on the ground in this game with Frank Gore and Devin Singletary having strong seasons and the Dolphins allowing 146.1 rushing yards per game.

We break down the line and offer our best bets and predictions for this matchup between two AFC East rivals.  

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Bills at Dolphins Game Details

Date: Sunday, November 17
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
TV: CBS
Spread: Bills -6.5
Total: 40.5

*All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook


Line Movement

This line opened at Buffalo -7.5 and has been bet all the way down to Bills -6.5 at some books, according to VegasInsider.com. The action is relatively split in this matchup with Buffalo getting just 58% of the bets and 56% of the money.

The total opened at 39 and has been bet up slightly to 40 and even 40.5 at some books. According to The Action Network, 54% of the bets and 66% of the money has been on the under.


Betting Trends

  • Bills are 5-3-1 ATS this season
  • Dolphins are 5-4 ATS this season
  • Under is 7-2 in Bills games this season
  • Under is 6-3 in Dolphins games this season
  • The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings
  • The over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings

*All trends are courtesy of Covers


Prediction & Picks

These two teams played four weeks ago and the Bills won 31-21. It was a low-scoring game until the fourth quarter when Buffalo outscored Miami 22-7 and secured the win. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been very up and down not only this season but throughout his entire career. Fitz has thrown eight picks this season but only one in the last two games, both victories. That being said, this feels like a good sell-high spot for Miami, who has won two straight and are all of a sudden a trendy dog. I expect Buffalo to control things upfront and take advantage of the weak Dolphins rushing defense. Two weeks ago, this line would have been at least three or four points higher. Anything under a touchdown for the Bill is a good value pick. Swallow the points.

PICK: Bills -6.5 (-110)

This is a homecoming game for Bills running back Frank Gore, who not only played for the Dolphins last season but is from the Miami area and played collegiately for the Hurricanes. Gore has gone over the 28.5-yard mark in six of nine games this season and should put forth an inspired effort in front of the hometown crowd.

PICK: Frank Gore over 28.5 rushing yards (-112)


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