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The Wisconsin Badgers (8-2) host the Purdue Boilermakers (4-6) at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison Saturday.
This game will be crucial for the Badgers if they want to keep their shot at the Big 10 West title alive. Wisconsin plays the Minnesota Golden Gophers next week to close their season, and the winner of that game will determine who reigns supreme in the Big 10 west.
Wisconsin
The Badgers are 6-0 at home this season under Paul Chryst, and they will be looking to go undefeated on the season at Camp Randall. Junior quarterback Jack Coan has had a decent year, throwing for 1,826 yards, 13 touchdowns and three interceptions. Coan isn’t explosive, but in this Badgers offense, he doesn’t need to be–he just needs to keep giving the ball to running back Jonathan Taylor.
Taylor has 1,463 yards on the season, and he will be facing a Purdue defense that is surrendering 172.2 yards on the ground per contest. That will likely be how the course of this game goes–Taylor should run all over Purdue with his home crowd cheering him on.
On defense, the Badgers have been solid this season, giving up 13.4 points a game. They are also allowing a fairly stingy 257.6 total yards each game, so Purdue will have a difficult task on Saturday.
Purdue
Head coach Jeff Brohm will likely be without his top wide receiver Rondale Moore yet again, and he will look to sophomore quarterback Aidan O’Connell to lead the team. O’Connell was the team’s third-string quarterback to start the season, but he saw himself taking over the starting role after the Boilermakers’ top two passers went down with season-ending injuries.
On defense, Purdue is giving up 27.8 points along with over 410 total yards a game. They’re allowing an average of 5.8 yards per play, and against the likes of Jonathan Taylor, that will not cut it. The Boilermakers will also be without their top defensive player, Lorenzo Neal, who is recovering from a torn ACL, so they will be shorthanded again on Saturday.
Trends, Pick and Prediction
Spread: Purdue +24.5
Over/Under: 48 points
Odds Shark currently have the Badgers winning the game by a projected score of 46-9, with Wisconsin covering the spread and the total score going over.
The following trends surrounding the game are courtesy of Odds Shark:
• The Boilermakers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
• Purdue is 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games against Wisconsin.
• Purdue is 0-10 SU in their last 10 games against Wisconsin.
• The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Purdue’s last 14 games on the road.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Wisconsin’s last 7 games.
• The Badgers are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games.
• Wisconsin is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home.
• The Badgers are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Purdue.
We’re with Odds Shark on this one. The Badgers should defend their home turf against an inferior opponent, and Jonathan Taylor will be too much for the Boilermakers defense to stop.
Final Prediction: Badgers 35, Purdue 14
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