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The New England Patriots are 6.5-point favorites over the Buffalo Bills in Saturday’s crucial AFC East showdown at Gillette Stadium that could decide who wins the division title.
Buffalo (10-4) is returning to the postseason for the first time since 2017 when they lost 10-3 to the Jaguars in the AFC Wild Card game. The Bills defense ranks second behind the Patriots allowing 15.9 points and third overall with 291.9 yards allowed per game this season. Cornerback Tre’Davious White was named AFC Defensive Player of the Week for the second time after recording two interceptions, two passes defended and four tackles in the win over Pittsburgh.
New England (11-3) can clinch its 11th straight AFC East title with a victory as they gear up for another postseason run. The Patriots have relied heavily on their defense this season and lead the NFL in interceptions (25), points allowed (12.9) and yards allowed (268.4). Tom Brady is completing just 60.1% of his passes this season, over 5.7% fewer than 2018. The Patriots rushed for 175 yards last week in the 34-13 win over the Bengals but managed just 75 yards on the ground in the Week 4 victory over Buffalo.
ESPN’s FPI gives New England an 81.4% chance of winning this game. We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for Saturday’s crucial AFC Eastmatchup between the Bills and Patriots.
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Bills vs. Patriots Game Details
Date: Saturday, December 21
Time: 4:30 pm
Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxboro, Massachusetts)
TV: NFL
Spread: Patriots -6.5
Total: 37
*All lines, odds, and trends are courtesy of Covers & The Action Network
Line Movement
This line opened at Patriots -7 and has been bet down slightly to Patriots -6.5 with the majority of the bets and money coming in on the Bills. This line is correlated with the action and is moving with the market.
Betting Trends
- Bills are 10-4 SU and 9-4-1 ATS this season
- Patriots are 11-3 SU and 8-6 ATS this season
- Under is 11-3 in Bills games this season
- Under is 9-5 in Patriots games this season
Analysis & Picks
Everyone is writing off the Patriots, which is precisely the time you need to take a hard look at them. New England covered the number against the lowly Bengals last week but are only 8-6 ATS this season. The Bills are coming off their most important win of the 2019 campaign and clinched a spot in the postseason with a 17-10 victory over the Steelers at Heinz Field. New England has won six in a row in their series against Buffalo and 34 of their last 39 meetings following a tough 16-10 road win back in Week 4. I usually fade the public underdog narrative, which is what Buffalo has going for them in this matchup with over 60% of the action coming in on the Bills. Josh Allen threw three interceptions the last time these two teams met and it won’t get any easier for the Bills offense in a hostile environment. The Patriots are the rare contrarian play here and I’ll put my money on Bill Belichick and Tom Brady to avoid losing consecutive games at home. The Patriots win, cover and clinch the division title all in one fell swoop.
PICK: Patriots -6.5
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Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith
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