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The Houston Texans are chasing down their fourth AFC South title in the last five years. The Denver Broncos are just looking to figure things out at the quarterback position. The two AFC opponents will meet on Sunday in Houston as Drew Lock will make his second career NFL start under center for Denver. Deshaun Watson will try to avoid a post-Patriots letdown after throwing for three touchdowns in Houston’s huge 28-22 win over New England last week. Lock played well in his debut last week completing 64.8% of his passes and tossing two touchdowns in a 23-20 win over the Chargers. Lock also led the Broncos down the field in the final seconds setting up the game-winning field goal by Brandon McManus.
The Texans almost coughed up a 28-9 lead in the fourth quarter against New England last Sunday night and are trying to avoid a letdown spot with division rival Tennessee looming on deck next week. The Broncos will be without defensive end Derek Wolfe who will miss the rest of the season after sustaining a dislocated elbow last week. Wolfe led the team with seven sacks this season.
ESPN’s FPI gives the Texans an 80.2% chance of winning this game. We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for Sunday’s matchup between the Broncos and Texans.
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Broncos vs. Texans Game Details
Date: Sunday, December 8
Time: 1:00 pm
Location: NRG Stadium (Houston, Texas)
TV: CBS
Spread: Texans -9
Total: 43
*All lines, odds, and trends are courtesy of Covers & The Action Network
Line Movement
This line opened at Texans -7.5 and has been bet up to Texans -9 with the slight majority of the bets on the Broncos. The action is split evenly between Denver and Houston which indicates a slight reverse line movement favoring the Texans.
Betting Trends
- Broncos are 4-8 SU and 7-5 ATS this season
- Texans are 8-4 SU and 6-6 ATS this season
- Under is 7-5 in Broncos games this season
- Under is 7-5 in Texans games this season
Analysis & Picks
Houston snuck by the Broncos in this game last season by a final score of 19-17 as McManus missed a 51-yard field goal as time expired. But that was with Case Keenum under center for Denver. The Broncos quarterback situation has deteriorated vastly since last year with the injury to Joe Flacco and poor play of Brandon Allen. Now it’s Lock under center as Denver tries to keep things close in Houston. Offensively, I don’t think the Broncos offense can keep up with the high-octane Texans attack. Denver has scored just 16.5 points per game this season, third-fewest in the NFL and has failed to exceed 24 points in a game this season. They will need to break that threshold this week if they want any chance of winning this game. However, this is the ultimate sandwich spot for Houston after a huge win last Sunday night over the Pats and a big divisional game on deck next week in Nashville against the Titans. The under feels like a good play here as I expect Houston’s offense to be a bit sluggish as well.
PICK: Under 43
READ NEXT: Colts vs. Bucs Prediction: Tampa Tries to Make it Three Straight Wins
Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith
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