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Just 2.5 weeks after a chaotic brawl, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns will renew acquaintances on Sunday in a crucial matchup dripping with playoff drama. The fallout from the Myles Garrett infamous helmet swing with Mason Rudolph has effected both teams. Rudolph did not play well last week against the Cincinnati Bengals and was eventually benched in favor of third-string quarterback Devlin Hodges, who will start again on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Browns defense will be without their best defensive player and one of the leading sack-getters in the NFL for the rest of the season and possibly beyond. The Steelers will also be without two key playmakers on offense as JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner will both miss the game with injuries.
ESPN’s FPI gives the Jets a 51.0% chance of winning this game. We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for Sunday’s AFC North matchup between the Browns and Steelers.
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Browns vs. Steelers Game Details
Date: Sunday, November 30
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Location: Heinz Field (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania)
TV: CBS
Spread: Browns -2.5
Total: 39.5
*All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Line Movement
This line opened at Steelers -3 and has flipped to Browns -2 at most books, according to VegasInsider.com. The action is favoring the Browns who are receiving a majority of the bets and money, according to The Action Network.
The total opened at 40.5 and has been bet down slightly to 39.5 at most books with the majority of the bets and money coming in the on the under.
Betting Trends
- Browns are 5-6 SU and 4-6-1 ATS this season
- Steelers are 6-5 SU and 4-7 ATS this season
- Under is 6-5 in Browns games this season
- Under is 8-3 in Steelers games this season
- Browns are 2-3 SU and 2-3 ATS in road games this season
- Steelers are 4-2 SU and 4-2 ATS in home games this season
- Under is 3-2 in Browns road games this season
- Over is 3-3 in Steelers home games this season
*All trends are courtesy of Covers
Analysis & Picks
It’s hard to believe that these two teams will meet again so soon after what was an absurd scene 2.5 weeks ago between Myles Garrett and Mason Rudolph. I would imagine emotions will be high in this game especially early on and it would not surprise me if both teams struggle to move the ball in the first half. The Steelers defense is the best unit on the field and has been playing at an elite level since the team acquired safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. Pittsburgh’s D is ranked No. 3 in the NFL according to DVOA and I expect them to put forth an inspired effort at home in a rivalry game. If I had to pick a side in this game, I would fade the line movement and grab the value with the Steelers getting points at home, but the pick I really like in this game is the under, especially in the first half as this divisional slugfest should not exceed the total.
PICK: Under 20 1st half (-110)
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Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith
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