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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers might be the most entertaining and frustrating team in the NFL. The Bucs will travel across the Sunshine State on Sunday to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in a game featuring two quarterbacks who have struggled this season. Jameis Winston leads the league in interceptions and Nick Foles has not been able to find stable footing after returning from a collarbone injury. Defensively, both of these teams are in the bottom half of the DVOA rankings, and the Bucs are allowing 30.5 points per game this season, second-most in the league. The Jags defense has been significantly better, allowing just 18.8 points per game. Defensive end Josh Allen has eight sacks, tied for the lead among rookies with Nick Bosa of the San Francisco 49ers.
ESPN’s FPI gives the Jags a 51.7% chance of winning this game. We break down the line and offer our best bets and analysis for Sunday’s matchup between the Bucs and Jags.
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Bucs vs. Jaguars Game Details
Date: Sunday, November 30
Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Location: TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Florida)
TV: FOX
Spread: Bucs -2.5
Total: 46.5
*All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Line Movement
This line opened at Jaguars -4.5 and has flipped to Bucs -2.5 at most books, according to VegasInsider.com. The action is favoring the Bucs who are receiving a majority of the bets and money, according to The Action Network.
The total opened at 49 and has been bet up slightly to 47 at most books with the majority of the bets and money coming on the over. This movement indicates a sharp reverse line movement favoring the under.
Betting Trends
- Bucs are 4-7 SU and 3-8 ATS this season
- Jaguars are 4-7 SU and 5-6 ATS this season
- Over is 9-2 in Bucs games this season
- Over is 6-5 in Jaguars games this season
- Bucs are 3-3 SU and 3-3 ATS in road games this season
- Jaguars are 2-2 SU and 2-2 ATS in home games this season
- Over is 5-1 in Bucs road games this season
- Over is 2-2 in Jaguars home games this season
*All trends are courtesy of Covers
Analysis & Picks
The total is most appealing to me in this game, but I’m confused by the line movement. Everything points to the over, including the Bucs shoddy defense and potential hot streak for Jameis Winston at some point during the game. Tampa Bay has played nine straight games to the over and Winston might not only lead the league in interceptions but also passing yards and touchdowns. He is truly an enigma wrapped in a riddle and there’s no way I can back him here, despite the sharp line movement in Tampa’s direction. This total has been bet down almost three points, which to me means it’s approaching value territory on the over. I think Winston throws three touchdowns and one pick six as this number flies over the total.
PICK: Over 46.5 (-110)
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Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith
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